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Apr 22 - 11:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Dovish BoE Echoes Heighten Sterling Vulnerability

By Paul Spirgel  —  Apr 22 - 10:05 AM

GBP/USD's latest 2024 low, 1.2305 as of early U.S. trade, is unlikely to be the last as Friday's dovish comments from BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden echo through the market and traders raise the probability of June rate cut near 60%.

Ramsden's confidence that UK inflation risks are ebbing along with BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's recent comments that British inflation is slowing largely as expected have led UK rate traders to pull forward perceived rate cut risks, first from September to August and now June.

This has weighed heavily on GBP/USD, especially occurring as it did as Fed rate-cut expectations have fallen.

LSEG's IRPR now projects 40bp of Fed easing by December, down from more than 150bp at the beginning of 2024.

This divergence will probably leave sterling bears targeting early November 2023 lows near 1.22.
If the dovish rhetoric gains more voices, Oct.
2023 support just below 1.21 could be next.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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