Credit Agricole CIB Research discuses the expectations for next week's RBA policy meeting.
"Australian retail sales saw the first decline in 2022 when December sales fell by a massive -3.9% MoM in seasonally adjusted terms. Some of the decline in retail sales is payback from households bringing forward their Christmas shopping from December to November due to Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales and the seasonal adjustment undertaken by the ABS failing to account for this shift in seasonality," CACIB notes.
"We think the ambiguity in the retail sales data combined with the strong trimmed mean inflation data last week will still see the RBA hike rates by 25bp next week.
Investors will be on the lookout for the central bank potentially signalling a pause after the hike next week, which will weigh on the AUD in the run up to the meeting along with concerns about a hawkish Fed later this week," CACIB adds.