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Jun 16 - 05:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-Traders May Have Long Wait For A EUR/USD Break-Out

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jun 16 - 03:57 AM

It took a health crisis to boost EUR/USD to neutral long-term levels where it has been stuck this year and will likely stay until there's news with punch equivalent to the pandemic to spark a break-out.
That may be a long time.

The euro zone debt crisis drove EUR/USD down from 1.3995 to 1.0340 and several years later the COVID-19 outbreak fuelled a rally from 1.0336 to 1.2349.
The half-way mark or neutral ground for those moves is 1.2168.

The middle of this year's 1.1704-1.2349 extremes is 1.2026 and centre of 20-week Bollinger bands is 1.2038.

Volatility has sunk to pre-pandemic levels when EUR/USD traded ranges largely within 1.1000-1.1500 for almost two years.

Traders have bet heavily on EUR/USD rising, weighing on an already immobile pair and countering bullish techs.

The emergence of enough U.S. inflation to stir thoughts the Federal Reserve could begin to unwind easy policy is supporting USD but quick policy changes are extremely unlikely.
EUR/USD traders are likely to have a long wait on their hands.

For or more click on FXBUZ


EUR/USD 2015-21 Click here

EURUSD 2021 Click here

EUR/USD vol and bets Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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