Feb 4 (Reuters) - USD/JPY has recently ratcheted lower despite Trump tariff threats, falling on perceived haven flows and Bank of Japan rate hike expectations. While it remains in a 153.72-155.90 range for now (the Jan 27 low and Feb 3 high), the risk may be for more downside.

USD/JPY looks to be tracking the top of its daily Ichimoku cloud higher. Having fallen into this ascending cloud over the past few sessions, the pair has mostly traded above it in a 154.75-155.40 range on Tuesday. The cloud is between 153.37-154.82 Tuesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats have so far proven to be more of a favoured negotiating tool to get what he wants with the rest of the world . Granted, large tariffs remain a distinct possibility and will likely continue to rattle markets but, should they prove to be less harsh than expected, the BOJ's stance may trump such concerns.

The BOJ will clearly remain hawkish and more frequent rate hikes may be in the offing , . The U.S. Federal Reserve looks to be on hold for now , but will likely resume cutting rates later this year .

USD/JPY will need a decisive break below support ahead of the Jan 27 low and the daily Ichimoku cloud base to trade into a lower range. Support below the cloud is at the 200-day moving average at 152.81 and rapidly ascending 100-DMA below at 152.63.

Large option expiries from 154.50 this week could well limit the downside for now.
USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries this week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)