• EUR/CHF has slipped below its 200-day MA as unrest in France weighs. A close below would reinforce the bear bias

• As previously flagged, the shift in preferred funding currencies is likely a bigger drag for EUR than CHF

• Event risk keeps EUR soft. The French budget debate begins on Oct 20

• Given that the vote is expected to fail, much of this should already be priced in

• The focus is therefore on how EUR reacts to the events, not the outcome itself - eyes also on the Bund-OAT spread

• Initial support is at 0.9215, followed by 0.9180

• If the negatives are largely in the price, these levels of support should limit downside in the near-term
EURCHF daily chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))