Synopsis:

Credit Agricole’s month-end model indicates mild USD selling, with their corporate flow model pointing to EUR buying and GBP selling into the fix. The combined signal favors long EUR vs a USD/GBP basket.

Key Points:

• Mild USD Selling Expected:
  Adjusted for equity market performance and FX shifts, Credit Agricole sees broad but soft USD sell signals, especially strongest vs SEK.

• Corporate Flow Insights:
  Their corporate model suggests EUR inflows and GBP outflows, aligning with month-end rebalancing behavior.

• Combined Strategy:
  Credit Agricole recommends buying EUR against a weighted basket of USD and GBP based on this dual signal approach.

Conclusion:

Month-end positioning supports EUR appreciation, particularly vs GBP and USD, with Credit Agricole tactically favoring this setup into the fix.