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EUR / USD
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USD / JPY
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GBP / JPY
By eFXdata  —  Nov 30 - 08:30 AM

MUFG Research discusses CAD outlook and maintains a structural bearish bias over the medium-term.

"Our current FX forecasts indicate our view of likely CAD underperformance over the forecast horizon.  Our view is based on the risks that the consequence of this relatively aggressive action by the BoC would be weak data emerging in Canada ahead of most other G10 countries. Close links to the US reinforce that risk given the Fed action and the prospect of slower US growth as well," MUFG notes, 

"There were other factors weighing on CAD yesterday. The sale by HSBC of its Canada unit to RBC was announced and fuelled speculation of outflows from Canada with HSBC reportedly using the proceeds for a one-time dividend or a share buyback program...CAD underperformance yesterday was stark. A one-off HSBC flow may have played a role in this but nonetheless the fundamental backdrop is worsening and the CAD outperformance this year relative to non-USD G10 is likely to reverse further from here," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Nov 30 - 07:15 AM
  • AUD/USD rallied 0.66705-0.6740 overnight, NY opens near that high

  • Risk-on theme drives investors into riskier assets and out of US$

  • Equities ESv1, commodities HGv1 gain & USD/CNH fell below 7.0725

  • AUD/USD techs lean bullish; consolidation ongoing, RSIs rising

  • US Q2 GDP, PCE and Oct. JOLTS, pending homes index are data risks in NY

  • Speech from Fed's Powell is a major event risk during NY hours

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Nov 30 - 05:55 AM
  • USD/JPY has risen from 138.34 to 139.03 Wednesday, according EBS data

  • Dollar on shaky ground as Fed's Powell set to speak nL1N32Q0MK

  • USD/JPY's daily chart points to a market poised to drop nL1N32Q0H2

  • USD/JPY, EUR/JPY 30-day log correlation above +0.50 = positive relationship

  • Japan to consider tapping FX account to boost defence spending - Kyodo

  • Those are funds set aside for foreign exchange intervention nL1N32P2FU

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Nov 30 - 05:10 AM

Sterling might have turned a corner having lost nearly 28% in value to the dollar between May 2021 and September 2022.
GBP/USD is set for back-to-back monthly gains as November ends.

The monthly chart might be giving clues on longer-term direction having recorded a significant reversal signal in September.
The shorter-term charts continue to show volatility as the fundamental backdrop triggers big swings in the spot price.
However, September's hammer candle, which can warn of a trend reversal, and the subsequent bullish confirmation in October could bode well for sterling through December.

If sterling ends November above 1.1495, the month's opening level, the bull reversal could then target a major 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2280, taken from the 1.4233 to 1.0327 May 2021 to September 2022 drop.

Sterling could extend its recovery into early 2023 and an Ichimoku cloud twist for March, with 1.2895-1.3036 parameters, might pull the market higher.
Cloud twists can appear to attract price action.

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Nov 30 - 04:40 AM
  • Big USD/CAD rally Tuesday from 1.3409 to 1.3645 - boosted option demand

  • 1-week already buoyed in to Fri's U.S. NFP - gained another 1.5 to 10.0

  • Benchmark 1-month implied vol up 0.5 to 9.3 before peaking

  • Option dealers also report strong end-user demand for topside strikes

  • Risk reversals retain a firm 0.9 vol premium for CAD puts/USD calls (upside)

  • Overnight expiry now gets Powell - biggest vol gains vs peers 13.5 from 11.0

  • Related comment nL1N32Q0IU



For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Nov 30 - 02:50 AM
  • Fourteen-day momentum is still negative, reinforcing the bearish bias

  • Expectation is for losses to the key 135.48 Fibo in coming sessions

  • 135.48 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the 130.40-151.94 (Aug-Oct) EBS rise

  • We look to get short at 138.80 in anticipation for the drop to 135.48

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. Prev nL1N32P0G6

  • EUR/JPY range has been 143.19-143.65, on Wednesday, according to EBS prices

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Nov 30 - 02:00 AM
  • EUR/USD: 1.0250 (493M), 1.0290-00 (1.32BLN), 1.0330 (367M)

  • 1.0340-50 (705M), 1.0370-80 (1.11BLN), 1.0405-15 (800M)

  • 1.0420-25 (619M)

  • USD/JPY: 138.50 (457M), 139.00 (295M), 140.00 (270M), 140.25 (810M)

  • EUR/JPY: 140.00 (470M), 144.00 (290M)

  • USD/CHF: 0.9440 (355M), 0.9485 (320M). EUR/CHF: 0.9800 (355M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.2050 (941M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6600 (577M), 0.6645 (217M), 0.6700 (254M), 0.6735 (708M)

  • 0.6775 (331M)

  • NZD/USD: 0.6300 (270M)

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Nov 30 - 01:35 AM
  • Price action becoming sticky in the 1.1945-55 area

  • Our short is nicely on-side and we lower the stop to 1.2065

  • Positive daily momentum beginning to fade: RSI flat lining at high levels

  • Key levels topside, the 200DMA at 1.2160 and a 50% Fibo

  • The Fibo taken off the 1.4233-1.0327 drop is at 1.2280

  • Dec. 5 1.1131-69 cloud twist still in play

    For more click on FXBUZ















Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Nov 29 - 10:25 PM
  • EUR/USD opened -0.12% at 1.0328 after USD recovered during the US session

  • After trading 1.0319 it drifted higher in a quiet Asian session

  • EUR/USD rose to 1.0352 before settling just below 1.0350 into the afternoon

  • Price action drawn to the 10-day MA at 1.0345

  • Sellers are tipped ahead of 1.0450 and 1.0500

  • Resistance is at the 50% of the 2022 high/low at 1.0511

  • Support is at the 21-day MA at 1.0224 and break increases downward momentum

  • EZ CPI may get a reaction with key event being Powell's speech later today

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 29 - 10:20 PM

  • +0.15%, as =USD slips 0.15%, with risk resilient in Asia, E-mini S&P +0.1%

  • Trades towards the top of a 1.1942-1.1988 range with moderate D3 flow

  • UK fresh food prices climb record 14.3% in November – BRC nL8N32P45K

  • Cost of living crisis suggests nurses strike the first of many nL8N32P4HW

  • Techs; daily momentum studies conflict, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs crest or climb

  • 21 day Bollinger bands rise - uptrend stalled, but remains a positive setup

  • Under pressure 1.1955 10 DMA major support, break targets 1.1762 key 21 DMA

  • Sterling's honeymoon period may be short-lived nL1N32Q009

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Nov 29 - 08:50 PM
  • AUD/USD at session high around 0.6695 despite weaker China Mfg PMI nAZN0SDK34

  • Market discounting weak China data due to impact of Covid restrictions

  • AUD/USD resilient, as softer Aus CPI also failed to dent price action nS9N31B024

  • Break above 10-day MA at 09.6690 targets yesterday's 0.6749 high

  • AUD/USD unlikely to wander too far ahead of Fed Chaor Powell's speach

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Nov 29 - 07:45 PM
  • AUD/USD dipped from 0.6685 to 0.6670 after Oct Aus CPI softer than expected nS9N31B024

  • The dip proved short-lived and AUD/USD is back above 0.6685

  • Aus construction work done was a bit better than expected while building approvals were worse nAZN0SDKMKnAZN0SDKH0

  • The RBA will like the softer monthly CPI, but it is unlikely going to stop them from hiking 25 BPs to 3.10% next week

  • According to RBAWATCH the market is pricing in a 80% chance of a 25 BP hike

  • AUD/USD trading close to 10-day MA at 0.6690 with sellers ahead of 0.6750

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 29 - 06:40 PM

  • Steady - closed unchanged after reversing off 1.2062 early London high

  • China optimism led soft USD in Asia, reversed as UST yields, USD climbed

  • Sterling remains USD and risk led, rather than by domestic issues at present

  • Techs, daily momentum studies conflict, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs crest or climb

  • 21 day Bollinger bands rise - uptrend stalled, but remains a positive setup

  • Resistance at 1.2291, the well tested August high is the longer term target

  • Under pressure 1.1955 10 DMA is initial major support and a recent base

  • Sustained break would target 1.1762 pivotal rising 21 day moving average

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Nov 29 - 06:00 PM
  • EUR/USD opens -0.12% after easing from 1.0395 during US session

  • USD traded with bid tone in North America and EUR/USD closed near day's low

  • Market is positioning for speech from Fed Chair Powell later on Wednesday

  • Month end rebalancing flows also impacting price action

  • EUR/USD closed below the 10-day MA (1.0343) which will be resistance

  • Support is at 1.0220/25 where Nov 21 low and 21-day MA converge

  • EUR/USD in consolidation mode as market awaits a fresh trend

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 29 - 03:00 PM

Danske Research discusses its expectations for China's zero-Covid policy. 

"We expect to see a gradual adjustment in Covid measures, but also that China will still aim to dampen the spread of the virus, while running the vaccination campaign for the elderly, so that the virus does not explode and overwhelm the health system completely. By allowing the virus to spread, the incentive for elders to take the vaccine also goes up significantly," Danske notes. 

"For markets, households and companies, what is important is that you can now see an end to the zero-Covid policy and an improvement of the economy on the other side of the short-term chaos that could arise from a sharp rise in the virus spreading. We still do not think we will see a full reopening until we hit the warmer season over the summer and the elderly are fully vaccinated. But the conviction that China will leave the zero-Covid policy and pave the way for an economic rebound in H2 2023 has gone up. A rebound where pent-up demand in consumption and the property sector is unleashed. We look for growth in 2024 to rebound to 5.3," Danske adds.

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Nov 29 - 05:30 PM
  • AUD/USD opens +0.51% at 0.6687 after trading as high as 0.6749

  • Move to highs spurred on by hopes of China reopening nL1N32P18L

  • US market was more focussed on upcoming Powell speech and bought USD nL1N32P1LR

  • AUD/USD opens around the 10-day MA at 0.6690 after closing just below

  • Sellers are tipped ahead of 0.6750 with resistance at Nov 15 high at 0.6797

  • Support is at the 21-day MA @ 0.6616 and break would renew downward pressure

  • New monthly Aus CPI will be released today and may get a reaction

  • China PMI will also be released today and should reflect weaker activity

  • Range trading likely ahead of Powell speech later today

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Content Admin  —  Nov 29 - 01:50 PM
  • Sterling relinquished early gains based on China policy change hopes

  • Prices fell marginally, leaving a bearish gravestone doji candlestick

  • Slide comes after falling away from descending 200-DMA by Nov's peak

  • UK mortgage approvals plunged 10.6% to lowest since June 2020 nL8N32P2EV

  • That as BoE Gov Bailey defended the bank's policies to parliament committee

  • Prices probing 10-DMA support at 1.1954, with 200-DMA looming at 1.2168

  • Big US data dump Wed-Fri plus beige book and Powell speech on Wed eyed

  • Pair still largely driven by global risk-on/off flows as recessions loom

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Nov 29 - 01:35 PM
  • EUR/USD held a tight range overnight, NY opened near 1.0385

  • Pair slid despite US data suggesting economy is softer nL1N32P1CA

  • US$ bought in NY as US rates US2YT=RR rallied & risk soured a bit

  • Equities ESv1 slid while commodities LCOc1 ceded some gains

  • EUR/USD traded below 200-, 10-DMAs, hit 1.03245 on EBS, near 1.0335 late

  • Rising monthly RSI, consolidation of recent rally are bullish signals

  • EUR/USD range breaks await Fed's Powell nL1N32P19F

  • For more click on FXBUZ





Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 29 - 01:30 PM

ING Research discusses EUR/USD near-term outlook and sees a scope for a break below 1.03 through the remainder of the week. 

"EUR/USD failed to break the 1.0500 threshold yesterday and has dropped back to the 1.0350/1.0400 area after a widespread recovery in the dollar. The eurozone's exposure to China is one key driver to watch for the euro, and it could easily outweigh the benefits of lower energy prices," ING notes.

"Hawkish ECB expectations have not often translated into a stronger euro, and we continue to see the dollar doing the heavy lifting in driving EUR/USD moves. At this point, we believe a drop below 1.0300 is more likely than a rebound to 1.0500," ING adds. 

Source:
ING Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Nov 29 - 11:50 AM
  • AUD/USD rallied toward 0.6750 but then fell back toward the 10-DMA

  • Pair trades up +0.65% on the session but recent range remains intact

  • Consolidation of gains from Nov. low persists, pair in 0.6600-0.6800 zone

  • Rising daily, monthly RSIs imply upside momentum is in place

  • AUD/USD hold above daily cloud, 21-DMA reinforces bullish signals

  • Investors now focused on risk from Fed Chair Powell due Wednesday

  • If Powell dials down hawkish rhetoric US$ should fall & AUD/USD rally

  • Break above 0.6800 brings psychological 0.7000 level, Aug. high into focus

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 29 - 10:45 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses its US economic outlook for next year.

"We expect a mild recession in 1Q-3Q 23. With the Fed hiking to 5.0-5.25% in our forecast, history suggests a soft landing is unlikely.

A weak labor market, with the u-rate peaking around 5.5% in 1Q 24, should allow core PCE inflation to slow to 3.1% and 2.2% y/y by end-23 and end-24, respectively," BofA notes. 

"Risks are skewed towards a more prolonged expansion, additional Fed tightening, a later but deeper potential recession and more persistent inflation," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Christopher Romano  —  Nov 29 - 10:20 AM

EUR/USD traded flat on Tuesday, losing earlier gains and slipping back below the 200- and 10-day moving averages on broad-based dollar buying and a rise in U.S. yields, but it is unlikely to fall below the 1.0200-1.0500 zone as investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday.

Recent U.S. data indicate possible economic softening, with home price weakness nN9N2YW01O on Tuesday following contraction in November's S&P Global PMI nZON006UY1 and warnings of potential employment weakness in recent jobless claims nL1N32I1WG.

Though yields rose on Tuesday, they have generally been subdued by recent data as investors see a higher probability of recession moderating in the Fed's hawkish stance.

Treasury curve inversion has extended with help from the data.
The 3-month/10-year spread is near -70 bps, near levels not seen since late-2000 while the 2-year/10-year spread is approaching -75 bps, close to levels not seen in four decades.

The data should keep dollar bulls on defense, but Powell could change this if he sounds hawkish this week.

A less hawkish Powell, however, could lead EUR/USD to break 1.0500 and make a run at 1.0775/00 then possibly 1.1075/00.

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 29 - 09:30 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the JPY outlook and sees a scope for USD/JPY to regain some grounds in the near-term.

"It has been a volatile few days for the JPY, with the currency surging on the back China stumbling in its implementation of its 20-point plan to ease Covid restrictions. Newswire headlines recently have been reporting of a demand for safe havens and therefore the JPY as well as the USD. We think positioning was more at work than the JPY actually re-coupling with risk sentiment and becoming the go-to safe haven of investors," CACIB notes. 

"Indeed, the main drivers of USD/JPY are still UST yields as well as the slope of the UST curve, according to our FAST FX model. The model also points to USD/JPY remaining strongly negatively correlated with global equity markets. So higher UST yields on the back of a hawkish Fed would still see USD/JPY head higher and not be dragged lower by weaker global equity markets," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 29 - 08:47 AM

TD Research likes fading USD weakness around current levels.

"A combination of neutral positioning and elevated risk premiums across the non-USD complex could favor a pick-up in market volatility in the past few weeks of trading. Thin liquidity could also exacerbate moves, especially as month-end flows kick-in," TD notes. 

"We think we're at nice levels to fade some of the recent optimism priced into markets, highlighting the scope for some USD consolidation," TD add.

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
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