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Bank of America Global Research highlights the key findings from its latest FX and Rates Sentiment Survey.
The recent interventions have failed to turn JPY sentiment around. On the contrary, JPY bearishness increased considerably over the past month, reaching four-year high," BofA notes.
JPY bearishness primarily reflects survey respondents' concerns that the BoJ remains behind the curve and is consistent with a further deterioration in sentiment toward Japanese duration. While bearishness on both Japanese rates and the JPY is elevated relative to the start of our sample in Dec-2011, positioning appears less extreme than sentiment would suggest. To us, this suggests investors await greater clarity on the BoJ's policy path, favouring carry in the meantime
What terminal rate could stabilize the JPY? Most respondents believe that 2% (i.e., four additional hikes) could do the trick," BofA adds.