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Feb 10 - 04:55 AM

Gold - Trump Triggers Rush For Gold

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Feb 10 - 02:44 AM

• Fresh tariff threat triggers rush for gold

• Gold price hits new record peak at $2896/oz

• Nations opposed to U.S. may seek alternates to USD

• Traders have reduced wagers on dollar rising

• Gold is the new king of currencies

• Next topside targets are $2932/oz and $3040/oz


gold


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Robert Howard  —  Feb 10 - 02:41 AM

• Cable reclaims 1.24 handle following Trump-spurred drop to 1.2370 in Asia

• Trump on Sunday said he will introduce new 25% steel and aluminum tariffs

• 1.2370 is 9 pips shy of Thursday's post-BoE rate cut low

• Friday's high was 1.2490, after knee-jerk USD drop on Jan NFP miss

• UK job vacancies weakest since August 2020, REC/KPMG survey shows

• CFTC data: net GBP short almost halved to 11,323 contracts in week to Feb 4

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Ewen Chew  —  Feb 10 - 12:44 AM

• AUD/USD rebounds to Mon high 0.6277 from 0.6230 low

• But about to run into a wall of resistance near 0.6290

• Ichimoku cloud meets entrance of Bollinger uptrend channel

• If it can clear that barrier, short-covering may ensue

• But a deflection lower ought to send it back under 21 DMA

• USD losing traction in Asia in spite of Trump tariff threats
AUD:


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Andrew Spencer  —  Feb 09 - 09:52 PM

• Off 0.1% as the USD firmed on Trump steel and aluminium tariffs likely today

• Modest interest in GBP/USD on FX Matching, but EUR/GBP saw significant flows

• Demand for staff fell by the most since mid-2020, as the budget reverberates

• There is no UK data today, so the U.S. dollar will likely lead sterling

• Charts- 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages coil, as 21-day Bolli bands contract

• Daily momentum studies crest or fall - a neutral setup at familiar levels

• 1.2369 21-day moving average and last week's 1.2249 low are initial supports

• Last week's 1.2550 high and then the 1.2616 2025 top are first resistance

• A close below the resilient 1.2369 21 DMA would be a negative signal
Andy


(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Haruya Ida  —  Feb 09 - 09:33 PM

• USD/JPY from 151.20 early Asia and 150.93 in NY Friday to 152.13 EBS

• Short-covering and Japanese importer Tokyo fix demand seen behind move up

• Small stops from weak shorts also seen hit on break above 152.00

• Despite USD/JPY bounce, risk and bias for pair to remain down

• Another speed bump seen on way with announcement of Trump tariffs tonight

• Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs tonight, Japan to be included?

• US yields firm too after pops up Friday, Treasury 2s @4.285%, 10s @4.484%

• Option expiries to help contain spot going forward? Large above-below now

• Resistance too towards top of descending 151.64-152.65 hourly Ichi cloud

• 151.50 $1.2 bln, 151.75 $626 mln, 152.75 $335 mln, 153.00 $1.3 bln

• Related comments , , , also
USD/JPY hourly:


(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Haruya Ida  —  Feb 09 - 07:35 PM

• USD/JPY steadies above 151.00 after Friday plunge, Asia 151.20-89 EBS

• Down to 150.93 Friday in NY, bounce since on short-covering, higher US rates

• US rates see pop on what is considered a strong jobs report despite NFP miss

• Fed sees US economy resilient, inflation sticky, likely on hold indefinitely

• US Tsy 2s 4.212% to 4.296% Fri, 10s 4.428% to 4.515% but trend still down?

• Any option barriers at 150.00 now history with move

• USD/JPY lowest since 150.90 on Dec 10 '24, 150.85-95 double bottom now

Break below targets 150.00, 149.70 low Dec 9, maybe 148.65 spike low Dec 3

• 151.72-152.70 descending hourly Ichimoku cloud providing resistance up top

• Also descending 55-HMA in cloud at 151.90m 100-HMA above at 152.89

• Massive option expiries today - 150.00 $1.3 bln, 151.00 $780 mln

• 151.50 $1.2 bln, 151.75 $626 mln, massive at 153.00 and 154.00 above too

• Trump-Ishiba meeting seen good for Japan, Japan may avoid tariffs

• Nippon Steel-US Steel deal could be back on too, not purchase but investment

• Bias now for specs, others to sell on rallies? Risk now seen to downside

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , comment on BOJ

• US markets , , ,

• On US data , , Fed-speak ,

• On Trump-Ishiba meet , , ,

• And , other Trump news ,
USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries this week:


JGB-US Treasury 10-year interest rate differential:


(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Andrew Spencer  —  Feb 09 - 07:22 PM

• Off 0.15% with the USD up 0.2% after Trump's metal tariff proposals

• UK jobs market shows signs of cooling - biggest drop since August 2020

• There is no significant UK data today, so the USD will likely lead GBP

• Charts- 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages coil, as 21-day Bolli bands contract

• Daily momentum studies crest or fall - a neutral setup at familiar levels

• 1.2370 21-day moving average and last week's 1.2249 low are initial supports

• Last week's 1.2550 high and then the 1.2616 2025 top are first resistance

• A close below the close of 1.2370 21 DMA would be a negative signal
Andy


(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Krishna Kumar  —  Feb 09 - 05:44 PM

• USD/JPY unchanged in Asia after trading in a choppy 151.20-151.65 range

• Blips higher to 151.65 on Trump's comments after opening unchanged at 151.40

• Drops to 151.20 as safe-haven JPY sought before settling at 151.45

• Trump says to announce 25% steel, aluminum tariffs Mon in trade escalation

• Says he will announce reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday

• Japan PM Ishiba, after meeting Trump, voices optimism over averting tariffs

• BOJ's fresh take on labour crunch opens door for more rate hikes, caps USD

• Higher U.S. yields, healthy jobs market, inflation uncertainty support

• Tariff diplomacy and threats, Powell testimony, US CPI risk events this week

• Friday range 150.93-152.42
Average tariff rates of U.S. and its top 15 trading partners:


(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Christopher Romano  —  Feb 07 - 02:00 PM

(Corrects typo in headline)

• NY opened near 1.0380, traded a wide 1.0414-1.0348 range after US jobs data

• Mixed jobs report drove the wide swing but buyers emerged, 1.0390 was neared

• Pair held near that level after Feb. University of Michigan report

• Risk soured & US$ firmed on report Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs

• Stocks fell sharply, spreads widened, USD/CNH rallied

• EUR/USD hit 1.0305, neared 1.0340 on report EU may lower tariffs on US cars

• 1.0320 neared late as US$ was firm, pair traded down -0.58% late in the day

• Hold below daily cloud base, drop below 5- & 21-DMAs highlight downside risk
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Christopher Romano  —  Feb 07 - 01:48 PM

• NY opened near 0.62895, pair sat nearby into the January payroll report

• Mixed jobs data drove a wild swing, pair hit 0.63025 then traded 0.6266

• Firmer US yields, USD/CNH rally, stock drop weighed on AUD/USD

• Pair bounced & neared 0.6300 into Feb. University of Michigan report

• Sellers emerged on report Pres. Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs

• AUD/USD fell to 0.6254 then neared 0.6280 late, pair down only -0.18% late

• Daily doji, diverging daily RSI are short-term bearish signals

• Rising monthly RSI, monthly bull hammer candle give longs some comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Paul Spirgel  —  Feb 07 - 01:37 PM

• GBP$ trades -0.15% at 1.2420 in NY afternoon; NorAm range 1.2490-1.2377

• Pair whippy after U.S. payrolls firm on headline, sold on revision, wages

• USD got added boost after talk of U.S. reciprocal tariffs likely next week

• Sterling likely to struggle more after US payrolls

• Upcoming U.S.-Feb 12, UK-Feb 19 CPI in focus for hints at c.bank policies

• GBP$ supt 1.2377 Friday post-payroll, tariff talk low, 1.2249 Feb 3 low

• Res at falling 55-DMA by 1.2505, 1.2550 tariff delay flash relief high

Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By eFXdata  —  Feb 07 - 01:30 PM

Synopsis:

MUFG expects further downside for NZD/USD as trade uncertainty and aggressive RBNZ easing weigh on sentiment. However, demand is likely to pick up below 0.5500, especially if trade risks subside and New Zealand’s economy improves later in 2025.


Key Points:

  1. Tariff Risks to Drive Renewed NZD Selling:

    • The 1st February tariff announcement on Canada, Mexico, and China will increase global trade disruption risks, negatively impacting NZD.
    • The initial NZD bounce from January’s optimism over a more pragmatic US trade policy is expected to reverse.
  2. NZD/USD Already Down 12% in Q4, But More Weakness Likely:

    • Despite a 12% drop in Q4 2024, NZD’s January rebound has been modest.
    • Further 4-5% downside remains possible, particularly if tariff fears intensify.
  3. RBNZ’s Aggressive Easing Cycle to Weigh on NZD:

    • The RBNZ is set to cut by 50bps in February, with another 50bps of easing priced by July.
    • By mid-year, the RBNZ policy rate will be around neutral, allowing economic conditions to stabilize.
  4. Economic Recovery Could Provide Support Later in 2025:

    • New Zealand’s economy likely contracted by 0.3% in 2024 but is forecast to grow 1.3% in 2025.
    • With inflation now close to target (2.2% YoY in Q4), less trade uncertainty and better growth could help NZD recover later in the year.

Conclusion:

NZD/USD faces near-term downside risks due to tariff concerns and RBNZ easing, but demand is expected to pick up below 0.5500, especially if trade fears ease and economic growth improves later in 2025.

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Feb 07 - 11:57 AM

Feb 7 (Reuters) - EUR/USD has been gravitating toward the 1.0350 level since mid-November, and its resilience to momentary spikes lower on major concerns such as U.S. tariffs suggests the market might be reluctant to buy into endless U.S. exceptionalism. How the market digests, in coming sessions, Friday's mixed U.S. non-farm payrolls report -- which showed a downside surprise to payrolls combined with upward adjustments to previous months and an unexpectedly low unemployment rate -- will provide key clues to investors' thinking. EUR/USD initially struggled for direction after the data, suggesting the market may be awaiting employment reports in coming months to better evaluate the state of the labor market considering changes announced so far by U.S. President Donald Trump, including buyout offers for most government workers, plans to reduce the size of the federal workforce and other actions with the potential to affect employment. Markets will likely see future employment data as key to determining whether the Fed will deliver the additional rate cuts currently expected or decide to ease even further. If slower job growth does emerge, it could erode the dollar's yield advantage over the euro as terminal rate spreads for the Fed and ECB tighten and German-U.S. 2-year yield spreads narrow.

In a weaker U.S. employment scenario, investors expecting EUR/USD to fall towards parity could be disappointed and may have to cover short positions. U.S. weekly jobless claims data may take on added significance for market participants due to its frequency.
deus


eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By eFXdata  —  Feb 07 - 12:00 PM

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole highlights four key FX implications of President Trump’s trade wars, focusing on higher volatility, EUR underperformance, pressure on AUD/NZD, and risks for CAD despite a temporary reprieve.


Key Points:

  1. Increased FX Volatility:

    • The uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies has elevated FX volatility.
    • Markets remain on edge as Trump leverages tariffs for both economic and geopolitical goals.
  2. EUR Underperformance:

    • The EUR lags G10 peers in rebounding against the USD due to the lingering threat of US tariffs on the EU.
    • Ongoing trade uncertainty could dampen sentiment for European assets.
  3. AUD & NZD Pressure from US-China Tensions:

    • The ratcheting up of US-China trade tensions keeps AUD and NZD under pressure.
    • China has responded cautiously to new US tariffs, introducing countermeasures such as targeted tariffs and regulatory actions.
  4. CAD Reprieve is Temporary:

    • Despite a 30-day reprieve on US tariffs in exchange for stricter border control and fentanyl crackdowns, Canada remains at risk.
    • Trump’s escalating demands could lead to renewed pressure on CAD.

Conclusion:

Trump’s trade war tactics have increased FX volatility, weakened EUR, pressured AUD/NZD, and kept CAD at risk despite temporary relief. Markets remain vulnerable to shifting trade policies and geopolitical bargaining tactics.

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Feb 07 - 10:48 AM

Sterling's recent rise on diminished global tariff uncertainties and easing UK fiscal concerns is being overshadowed by a renewed focus on the U.S.-UK rate differential, which is shifting in the dollar's favor. Markets appeared to interpret Friday's non-farm payrolls report as broadly supporting the Fed's wait-and-see policy approach on policy, pushing U.S. rate expectations slightly higher in 2025 and widening the U.S.-UK rate gap, especially in the wake of Thursday's dovish BoE cut. GBP/USD reversed initial post-data gains on Friday, falling from its flash high 1.2490 to 1.2453, as markets shrugged off the downside headline payrolls surprise, focusing instead on upward revisions and rising earnings, which reduced Fed 2025 rate cut odds. This should increase the difficulty of sterling rising above the post-tariff delay high by 1.2550, struck on Feb. 5, and the 50% Fib of the 1.3043-1.21 November 2024-January 2025 range at 1.2571. Sterling traders will now look to U.S. CPI on Feb. 12 and UK price data on Feb. 19 for clues on the inflation outlooks and Fed and BoE policy. Any shift in the current steady Fed outlook or more-dovish BoE policy path may move GBP/USD out of its recent 1.2550-1.21 range.
GBP Chart:


G7 inflation table: :


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By eFXdata  —  Feb 07 - 10:30 AM

Synopsis:

BofA sees a strong technical setup for GBP/USD upside, recommending a long position via a 3-month call spread. Risks include a failed pattern, UK tariffs, and strong US NFP data.


Key Technical Factors Favoring GBP/USD Upside

  1. Daily & Weekly Charts Support a Rally

    • Daily chart:
      • Downtrend channel broken to the upside
      • Potential head-and-shoulders base forming
      • RSI & MACD show higher highs (bullish momentum)
    • Weekly chart:
      • Wave C down may be complete
      • MACD turning up
      • Net short positioning near a 2-year extreme
  2. Target Levels

    • 200-day moving average: 1.2791
    • 200-week moving average: 1.2750

Trade Recommendation: GBP/USD Call Spread

  • Buy GBP/USD 3-month 1.26/1.2850 call spread 1x1.5 for 0.4135% GBP
    • Spot reference: 1.2480
    • Implied volatility: 7.80%/7.50%

Risks to the Trade

  1. Pattern Failure:

    • A failed hammer or head-and-shoulders pattern if GBP/USD falls below 1.2249 (Monday’s low).
  2. UK Tariffs:

    • If the UK is targeted with tariffs, GBP could sell off.
  3. US NFP Data on Feb 6:

    • Stronger-than-expected jobs data could boost USD, capping GBP gains.

Conclusion:

BofA favors a GBP/USD rally, targeting 1.2750-1.2790 via a 3-month call spread. Technical momentum, positioning, and chart patterns align for a bullish move, but tariff risks and strong US data could challenge the setup.

Source:
BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Feb 07 - 09:22 AM

Synopsis:

The US January jobs report showed softer payroll gains but strong revisions and robust wage growth, supporting the Fed’s cautious stance. Meanwhile, Canada’s job market remained hot, but trade uncertainty casts doubt on sustainability.


US Jobs Report: Solid Overall, Despite Lower Headline Payrolls

  1. Payrolls Below Consensus, But Prior Revisions Were Strong

    • 143K jobs added (vs. 175K expected), but December revised up to 307K.
    • +100K net revisions over the prior two months.
    • 3-month job gains revised up from 170K to 204K.
  2. Wage Growth Surprised to the Upside

    • +0.5% m/m (above consensus), but may reflect lower hours worked (34.1 vs. 34.2).
  3. Household Survey Looked Strong

    • Unemployment rate fell to 4.0% (vs. 4.1% expected).
    • Participation rate ticked up to 62.6%, signaling continued labor supply growth.
  4. Takeaway:

    • Fed remains on hold, as momentum in labor markets remains solid.
    • Focus remains on inflation, fiscal, immigration, and trade policies.

Canada Jobs Report: Strong Gains, But Risks Ahead

  1. Employment Growth Surged

    • +76K jobs added (vs. 25K expected).
    • Unemployment fell to 6.6% (from 6.7%), even with rising participation.
  2. Private-Sector & Manufacturing Hiring Boosted Gains

    • Manufacturing added 33K jobs, but tariff uncertainty threatens future gains.
  3. Wage Growth & Hours Worked Still Strong

    • Wage growth eased to 3.7% (from 3.8%).
    • Hours worked surged 0.9%, indicating strong labor demand.
  4. Takeaway:

    • The unemployment rate is still higher than late 2022, suggesting slack remains.
    • Trade uncertainty & tariffs could weigh on hiring decisions moving forward.
    • Lower rates still needed to support a full labor market recovery.

Conclusion:

The US job market remains solid, despite softer headline payrolls, while Canada’s strong hiring faces risks from trade uncertainty. The Fed stays on hold, while Canada may need further rate cuts to absorb labor market slack.

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By Justin McQueen  —  Feb 07 - 06:59 AM

• Though GBP has bounced back following the BoE's dovish cut

• Technically, this bounce has yet to face key topside hurdles

• In turn, there is a risk in chasing GBP higher

• Initial resistance at the 55DMA (1.2505) and above at 1.2600-20

• At the same time, the growth outlook should remain a drag on GBP

• Next GDP update due Feb 13

• Meanwhile, there is a slew of BoE speak (Mann, Bailey & Greene)

• For now, the bias towards GBP is likely a fade on rallies

• BoE's survey leaves door ajar for faster policy easing
GBPUSD daily chart


(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Martin Miller  —  Feb 07 - 05:46 AM

Feb 7 (Reuters) - FX traders hoping to take advantage of the usual bullish February trend should be mindful of huge technical resistance that could well limit the upside.

An analysis of AUD/USD's February performance since 2000 shows it has risen in 16 of the past 25 years, or 64% of the time. However, seasonality should not be considered in isolation, it needs to be corroborated by other factors.

AUD/USD was weathering a bad case of whiplash on Friday having rallied from new dizzying 2025 lows at 0.6089 hit early in the week, but remains vulnerable to a relapse. Spot's rebound has been limited by thick daily cloud resistance, which currently spans the 0.6289-0.6433 region, highlighting the overall bearish market structure. There is scope for bigger losses below 0.6089, which in turn would unmask the 0.6000 psychological level.

However, those that are bullish can take comfort from the fourteen-day positive momentum reading. A break above January's 0.6330 high would increase the likelihood that AUD/USD could end February in positive territory.
Seasonality Chart:


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Peter Stoneham  —  Feb 07 - 04:46 AM

• The bullish engulfing candle from w/e January 20 is still in play

• Bear close last week weakened the signal but this week's gains have revived

• GBP eyes the weekly cloud and 100WMA, 1.2634 and 1.2644, respectively

• Weekly momentum remains negative but RSI is rising

• The week's 1.2550 high the key level to watch

• We lean bullish but are side lined for now waiting for further signals

• GBP/USD trader GBP/USD Trader: [page:2338]
GBP/USD Weekly candle chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Martin Miller  —  Feb 07 - 03:36 AM

• USD/JPY has broken 151.06 Fibo, a daily close below would expose 150

• 151.06 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the 148.65-158.88 (Dec-Jan) EBS rise

• 14-day momentum remains negative, highlighting the underlying downside risk

• A failure to close below the 151.06 Fibo would be a sign of a bear-trap

• A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a tech level but then reverses

• USD/JPY Trader . Previous update

Daily Chart:


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Robert Howard  —  Feb 07 - 03:13 AM

Feb 7 (Reuters) - The next Bank of England monetary policy decision day could be lively for sterling again, due to the possibility of another interest rate cut.

Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra look certain to vote for lower rates on March 20, having wanted the rate cut by 50 basis points to 4.25% on Thursday.

The dovish duo might be joined by Alan Taylor and Dave Ramsden, who both wanted the BoE to lower rates last December.

Tipping the scales to a reduction will be difficult, but not impossible: Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday said the BoE will address the rate cut question "meeting by meeting".

The consensus expectation is that the BoE will reduce rates again, by 25 bps to 4.25%, at its next-but-one meeting in May.

The pound dropped ahead of Thursday's quarter-point rate cut on speculation that at least one of the nine MPC members might vote for a reduction larger than 25 bps, and fell further on the news that two MPC members had done so.

Related comment:
GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Robert Howard  —  Feb 07 - 02:30 AM

• Cable trades on 1.24 handle after profit-take flow-assisted lift from 1.2361

• 1.2361 was low after GBP fell on two MPC votes for 50 bps rate cut Thursday

• Ensuing high 1.2456, during NY afternoon (1.2550 was 4-week high Wednesday)

• US jobs report due at 1330 GMT: Jan NFP f/c at 170k; jobless rate f/c 4.1%

• NFP beat could lessen risk of Fed rate cut before summer, and inflate dollar

• Bessent says strong USD policy remains intact under Trump, Bloomberg reports

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Peter Stoneham  —  Feb 07 - 02:26 AM

Bullish reversal holding despite early Friday weakness

• EUR/GBP remains above its daily cloud and 100-DMA

• Thursday's long upper candle shadow warns of demand fade

• February 17 0.8334-35 cloud twist could also drag on further gains

• Thursday 0.8376 high pivotal resistance for Friday

• A 61.8% Fibo just above at 0.8399

• Mixed signals leave us side lined for now

• EUR/GBP Trader EUR/GBP Trader: [page:2343]
EUR/GBP daily candle chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
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