The euro usually climbs against the U.S. dollar in November and the price action at the beginning of the month points to a continuation of this trend.
A study of EUR/USD's seasonal performance for each November since 2000 shows it has posted a positive return in 14 of the last 23 years, or 61% of the time.
However, seasonality should not be considered in isolation, it needs to be corroborated by other factors.
EUR/USD on Friday registered its biggest daily rise since July, closing up 109 pips to end the session well above the 1.0643 Fibo, a 23.6% retrace of the recent 1.1276 to 1.0448 (July to October) EBS fall.
It is sustained and built on Friday's break, having failed to do so on three occasions recently.
EUR/USD is now on course to break above the 1.0764 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of the same 1.1276 to 1.0448 drop, which in turn will increase the likelihood of spot finishing November in positive territory.
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