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Apr 02 - 02:55 PM

ANZ: Positive Outlook for AUD/USD in April Due to Seasonal Trends

By eFXdata  —  Apr 02 - 02:00 PM

Synopsis:

ANZ maintains an optimistic stance on the AUD/USD pair for April, citing historical seasonal trends that suggest this period typically benefits the Australian dollar. Despite fluctuating between 0.64 and 0.665 in March and briefly touching 0.667, the AUD failed to sustain gains above this threshold. ANZ's confidence for April is rooted in patterns indicating strong performances for both the AUD/USD and broader risk assets, alongside an expected uptick in iron ore exports from Australia.

Key Points:

  • March Performance: AUD/USD experienced a tight trading range, peaking momentarily at 0.667 but was unable to establish a foothold above this level.

  • April Optimism: Historical data supports a robust performance for AUD/USD in April, often seen as one of its most favorable months.

  • Risk Asset Correlation: Seasonality suggests a correlation between AUD strength and positive returns in US equity markets during April, underpinning the currency's potential uplift.

  • Export-Driven Demand: Predictions of increased iron ore exports in April could drive higher demand for the AUD from exporters, further supporting the currency's value.

Conclusion:

Leveraging historical seasonal trends and expected developments in export activities, ANZ projects a buoyant trajectory for AUD/USD in April. This optimism is anchored on the currency's past performance during this month, its correlation with positive movements in risk assets, and anticipated growth in demand stemming from iron ore exports.

 

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary

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