Societe Generale Research prefers short USD/CHF exposure than long EUR/USD as a strategic trade for 2021.
"In a world where Fed policy backs further dollar weakness while Switzerland struggles to recycle its large surplus, USD/CHF ought to fall. The global rates convergence not only minimises the usual prohibitive cost of such a short but is set to annihilate the carry trade for some time. This should markedly reduce selling pressure on the franc on the day markets fully embrace the reflation trade," SocGen notes.
"In a scenario whereby deteriorating risk sentiment revives appetite for the dollar, investors are better off with USD/CHF shorts than EUR/USD longs," SocGen adds.