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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By eFXdata  —  Feb 27 - 04:00 PM

NAB Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and maintains its base-case for the pair to remain contained in a 108-112 range.

"In our 2020 GFXS outlook published back in December last year, we argued that USD/JPY was expected to be largely contained in a ¥108-¥112 range over the course of this year. We retain this view and keep our ¥109 forecast for Q1 and Q2, reflecting our bias for the pair to spend a bit more time on the lower half of its expected range," NAB notes. 

"This view is also extended to H2-20 where our forecasts have been slightly tweaked from ¥108 and ¥110 in Q3 and Q4 respectively to ¥109 for both quarters. A gentle JPY strengthening theme remains in place in 2021," NAB adds. 

Source:
NAB Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Feb 27 - 01:15 PM
  • Fed cuts expectations, possible De stimulus boost EUR/USD early [nL2N2AR0N6]

  • Rally nears 50% Fib of 1.1240-1.0778, Feb 6 high then runs out of gas

  • UST yields, US equities rally sharply off their lows, drives a US$ bounce

  • Some EUR/USD gains erode, nears 1..0960 before nearing 1.0980 late

  • Recent EUR/USD panic buying could be an opportunity for some nL2N2AR12W

  • Slew of EZ data tomorrow, virus impact could be reflected in some reports







chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Feb 27 - 01:15 PM
  • Fall in US rates up Fed cut chances FEDWATCH AUD/USD lifts nL2N2AR0DR

  • Pair barely manages to rally above 0.6580 despite USD/CNH drop below 7.0000

  • Extension of commodity price drop, RBA cut chances temper AUD/USD bulls

  • Pair barely reacts to rally in global bond yields & US stocks off day's lows

  • Meager AUD/USD rally should be a concern for longs nL2N2AR1B9






chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 27 - 11:45 AM

 Citi Research sees a scope for the BoC to cut rates if the Fed moves and cuts rates on increasing concerns from the negative impact from Coronavirus on the economy. 

"CAD is through key resistance at 1.3330 with USDCAD currently trading above 1.3345 at the time of writing on the back of renewed oil weakness," Citi notes. 

"CitiFX Technicals sees room to head to the January 2019 high at 1.3565. We also flag that CitiFX Strategy sees scope for BoC to cut should the Fed move," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Feb 27 - 10:15 AM
  • EUR/GBP eyes 0.8535 (Feb 4 high) after building on Ldn am gains nL2N2AR0C4

  • Ascent to threaten 0.8535 has been fuelled by EU-UK trade concerns

  • Britain on collision course with EU over trade nL5N2AR4EHnL5N2AR4E7

  • Risk aversion lends support too: EUR above GBP on safe-haven currency ladder

  • European stocks plunge as pandemic fears mount nL3N2AR37FnL5N2AR5WB

  • Offers may emerge near 0.8547 (GBP/EUR 1.17) if EUR/GBP vaults 0.8535

EURGBP: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 27 - 09:01 AM

UOB Research discusses AUD/USD technical outlook and flags a scope for a test of the 0.6500 level in the near-term.

"Rapid improvement in momentum suggests AUD is likely to test 0.6500 next. We have held the same view since last Friday (14 Feb, spot at 0.6615) that “the risk for AUD is on the downside towards 0.6550”. After trading sideways for a few days, AUD plunged to an overnight low of 0.6542," UOB notes. 

"The rapid pace of decline was not exactly expected and the rapid improvement in momentum suggests AUD is likely to test 0.6500 next. On the upside, only a breach of 0.6610 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 0.6680) would indicate the current weakness has stabilized," UOB adds. 

Source:
UOB Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Feb 27 - 06:50 AM
  • Cruel market as our 0.8345 long stop was just 7-pips above Wed low

  • EUR/GBP subsequently rebounds strongly and levels above 0.8500 seen

  • Cross now spans daily cloud, 0.8441-0.8506

  • Cloud top offering up resistance but bid is holding

  • 14-day momentum likely to turn positive before week is out

  • Bull targets are 0.8535 and 0.8595, Feb 4 and Jan 14 highs











EUR/GBP Trader:

EUR/GBP Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Feb 27 - 05:30 AM
  • GBP weighed down by EU-UK trade concerns, with cable dropping to 1.2870

  • Britain on collision course with EU with trade talks mandate nL5N2AR4EH

  • 1.2870 is lowest level since Feb 20: 1.2849 was 12-week low that day

  • EUR/GBP up to 0.8500, five pips shy of Feb 10 high nL2N2AR08C

  • 1.2896 (Wednesday's low) is now a GBP/USD resistance level

  • Recovery rally from 1.2896 topped out four pips shy of 1.2950 nL2N2AR07M

GBPUSD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Feb 27 - 04:30 AM
  • EUR/GBP reached 0.8468 after catching a fresh bid from the European open

  • 0.8430-0.8446 was Asia range. 0.8468 is the highest level since Feb 10

  • Month-end demand and euro buy-backs mooted as factors in the rise to 0.8468

  • See: nL2N2AQ07KnL2N2AR06W. EUR above GBP on safe-haven currency ladder

  • German bond yields fall as coronavirus cases rise outside China nL5N2AR2MF

  • 0.8475 (GBP/EUR 1.18) and 0.8505 (Feb 10 high) are EUR/GBP resistance levels

EURGBP: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Feb 27 - 03:05 AM
  • Short covering has lifted EUR/USD above 21-DMA @ 1.0911

  • Month-end flows are contributing to support nL2N2AR06W

  • Pair close to meeting requirement of minimum tech correction from 1.1240

  • That correction (1.0954) will improve the health of the underlying downtrend

  • Rise orderly and those buying are very likely doing so for a profit

  • Profitable positions are usually re-established

  • Bet the next EUR/USD range is 1.07-1.10 nL2N2AP05R
















EUR/USD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Feb 27 - 02:05 AM
  • EUR/USD: 1.0820 (1.1BLN), 1.0900 (632M), 1.0915-25 (1.2BLN), 1.0955 (1BLN)

  • USD/CHF: 0.9615 (375M). EUR/NOK: 10.17 (786M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.2880-90 (400M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3215-20 (440M), 1.3255 (660M), 1.3275 (520M)

  • USD/JPY: 109.65 (450M), 110.25 (330M), 110.50-60 (400M), 110.70-75 (550M)

  • 111.00 (950M). EUR/JPY: 119.80 (705M)

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Feb 26 - 10:15 PM
  • US yields and the USD moved lower in Asia giving EUR/USD support

  • Concerns over report of coronavirus case in US sent S&P futures 1.2% lower nFWN2AR000

  • EUR/USD opened 1.0880 (session low) and traded as high as 1.0915

  • It is around 1.0910 into the afternoon session

  • A close above the 21-day MA (1.0910) targets 38.2 of 1.1240/1.0778 at 1.0954

  • A close below yesterday's 1.0855 low would result in bearish outside day

  • Key will be US yields and Fed expectations as coronavirus news dominates






eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Feb 26 - 09:55 PM
  • AUD/USD opened 0.6543 after breaking below support at 0.6585 overnight

  • USD broadly weakened on concerns coronavirus could spread in US nFWN2AR000

  • There was little reaction to Trump's reassurances as S&P futures fell 1.0% nL2N2AQ0DY

  • Despite weak equity markets - AUD/USD firmed 0.6555/60 into the afternoon

  • Aus Q4 Capex was worse than expected but had no impact on AUD/USD nL3N2AR0AU

  • Resistance at former support at 0.6580/90 and sellers tipped ahead of 0.6590

  • Psychological support at 0.6500 where option related buying is likely









aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Feb 26 - 08:25 PM
  • EUR/USD traded to 1.0913 to make a higher daily high for 5th straight day

  • Possible case of first coronavirus in US of unknown origin weighed on USD nFWN2AR000

  • EUR/USD has eased back below 1.1900 but still higher on the session

  • A close above 21-day MA @ 1.1910 targets the 38.2 of 1.1240/1.0778 at 1.0954

  • A close below yesterday's 1.0855 low would complete a bearish outside day






eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Feb 26 - 07:05 PM
  • Flat after closing little changed, but a fourth higher daily high and low

  • EU nL5N2AQ67X& UK nL5N2AQ7TJ have polarized positions into trade talks

  • The fundamental disagreements open the door to a hard Brexit in 2020

  • Expanding coronavirus, soft EZ economy and Brexit talks uncertainty to cap

  • Charts - sustained break of 1.0839 10 DMA - bullish 5 & 10 DMA cross

  • Rise leaves short term supportive signals within the primary downtrend

  • Close above 1.0954, 38.2% of the Dec-Feb fall needed to undermine trend

  • Shorts above 1.0900 with a stop around 1.0970 provide value for bears

eur feb 27 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 26 - 03:50 PM

ANZ Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and sees a scope for retesting 1.04 in the medium-term. 

"We have downgraded our 2020 GDP forecasts for the euro area as COVID-19 related disruption will delay the anticipated recovery in global trade and Europe’s manufacturing sector. We now expect GDP to rise by 0.9% vs 1.1%," ANZ notes. 

"The euro has reached our pre-coronavirus Q1 target of 1.08 vs USD. Severely limited reflationary policy room leaves the risks to the single currency skewed to the downside. A re-test of the post-crisis lows at 1.04 is expected," ANZ adds. 

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Feb 26 - 02:10 PM
  • Yen up, stocks, Tsy yields down on possible virus in NY nFWN2AQ0UI

  • No confirmed cases from New York State nL2N2AQ181

  • USD/JPY from 110.49-17 on story, 10-yr Tsy yields down by record low

  • S&P's below Tuesday's low and by 50% of Aug-Jan rally at 3,107

  • A USD/JPY close below 109.81 targets cloud & weekly kijun by 109



Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Feb 26 - 02:36 PM

AUD/USD - No Floor In Sight Yet

By Christopher Romano  —  Feb 26 - 01:05 PM
  • Pair opens just off Asia low, small lift near 0.6580 sold into nL2N2AQ09X

  • Despite upbeat risk sentiment AUD/USD slides lower, 0.6550 neared

  • AUD/USD risk reversals show premiums for puts over calls grows again

  • RSIs continue to imply bearish momentum remains; rally selling to persist

  • AUD/USD longs side lined, AU Q$ CAPEX due tonight helps keep them quiet

  • Bearish factors have shorts targeting the 0.6400/15 zone nL2N2AQ0S5







chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 26 - 12:00 PM

Bank of America Global Research discusses the EUR curve outlook. 

Depending on your sector of choice, the EUR curve has either reached its flattest levels since the crisis or since pre-2015 Bund tantrum extremesWhile the moves are superficially akin to last summer, a number of key differences suggest additional flattening risks cannot be ruled out; we are only at Stage 3 of 5 in the flattening move," BofA notes. 

"Stage 1 was driven by 50y, arguably on the back of expected Dutch pension discounting rule changes that increase the sensitivity of Dutch PFs to rates beyond the 30y. Stage 2 looks like insurance receiving, but with the regulatory push far in the offing, this may have been anticipatory flow, rather than actual hedging. In Stage 3, negative gamma on the other hand does seem to have been a driver, more so than in 2019. However, we may have yet to see broad-based capitulation of underweight duration positions in core EUR, though arguably price action Monday/Tuesday suggests this may be starting,"BofA adds. 

n169.PNG

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Randolph Donney  —  Feb 26 - 10:15 AM

USD/JPY tracked Treasury yields and stocks rebounding from coronavirus-inspired lows hit over the last 24 hours nL3N2AP0BC as markets -- particularly record-low Treasury yields and money markets pricing in multiple Fed rate cuts -- appeared to reflect worst-case scenarios.
But tremendous uncertainty remains in markets about the cost of the outbreak spreading beyond China, limiting the scale of any risk rebound.
USD/JPY, after sliding 112.23-109.89 from Thursday to Tuesday, found support near the 21-DMA and 61.8% Fibo of February's rise.
A cluster of potentially daunting resistance awaits around today's $2.6bln of 111 expiries nL2N2AQ0D9 as markets await virus updates.
Expanded closures in Japan and fear the 2020 summer Olympics there might be canceled are dimming the yen's safe-haven allure nL3N2AQ0BP, but there's only 10bp of BOJ easing priced in by year-end due to the drag of negative rates on local banks, savers and pension funds.
This despite clear recession danger nZRN0007Z0.
Key for the USD/JPY is S&Ps holding above their 200-DMA at 3,045 and N225 holding above today's 22,127 low by the 233-DMA and 50% Fibo of the August-January rally.


Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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