June 13 (Reuters) - USD/CAD's June seasonal analysis suggests an underlying fragility that could see this market end lower in the days and weeks ahead.

USD/CAD's performance for each June since 2000 shows it has dropped in 15 of the last 25 years, or 60% of the time. While seasonality should not be considered in isolation, it is a useful tool when corroborated by other factors.

USD/CAD has dropped to an eight-month low as U.S. economic data supported expectations the Federal Reserve would renew its interest rate cutting campaign in the coming months. Weakness is likely to persist as spot continues to trade under the broken 1.3744 Fibo, a 76.4% retrace of the 1.3420 to 1.4792 (September to February) rise, a key level taken out in May.

Fourteen-week momentum remains negative, highlighting the scope for bigger losses. The risk is growing for an eventual probe of the September 2024 low of 1.3420 in the days and weeks ahead.
Seasonality Chart:


Weekly Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)