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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 02 - 02:20 PM
  • Pair opens NY near 1.1155 after sharp overnight gains nL1N2DF0I6

  • US$ & yen broadly sold on upbeat risk, EUR/JPY rallies to 121.635 on EBS

  • EUR/USD rallies to 1.1197 on EBS but pulls back near 1.1165 on firming US$

  • Pair holds most of day's gains, sits near 61.8% Fib of 1.1495-1.0636 late

  • Pierced 61.8% Fib, rising daily & monthly RSIs have techs lean bullish

  • EUR/USD longs are confident as bull signals increase nL1N2DF0QN

eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 02 - 03:00 PM

Bank of America Global Research discusses its expectations for the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. BofA holds a short EUR/USD targeting a move towards 1.05.

"We expect the ECB to increase the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) envelope by EUR300-400bn this week, and the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) by around EUR120bnincluding fallen angels in purchases and giving some clarity on PEPP reinvestment. Good news on the Recovery Fund does not let the ECB off the hook...

Given strong market expectations for PEPP increase, there may be some disappointment if the ECB stays on hold-EUR negative-but the market will still expect the PEPP to increase later in the summer. We would also expect Lagarde to repeat strong forward guidance of the ECB's determination to do whatever it takes, within its mandate, to address the severe economic shock," BofA notes. 

"Despite the market euphoria following the EU Commission proposal on the Recovery Fund, we remain bearish EUR...The EU Recovery Fund is not yet approved and difficult negotiations ahead point to risks that it would weaken," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 02 - 12:15 PM

AUD/USD's break above the 200-DMA and 76.4% Fibo of 0.7032-0.5510 led to swift gains toward 0.6900 and a likely move towards 0.7020/40 resistance.
Risk-on sentiment is being driven by investors' reduced U.S.-Sino concerns nB9N2D2002 and global economic recovery hopes nL4N2DF193.
Those factors drove emerging market currencies higher versus the greenback and sank USD/CNH towards 7.1000.
A still cautious but less pessimistic RBA nL4N2DF1DM and a massive short squeeze nL1N2DE1AB added to AUD/USD's buoyancy.
Copper's HGv1 rally, which AUD/USD has been highly correlated to recently, to a 2.5-month high bolsters the economic recovery view.
AUD/USD options investors are showing less fear of an AUD/USD downside move.
Risk reversals AUD1MRR=FN show vol premiums for puts over calls remain but the premium is quickly eroding.
Technicals highlight the upside risks as RSIs imply upside momentum remains and the 10-DMA is about to cross above the 200-DMA.
Immediate resistance sits near 0.6900 and 0.6940 but it might not be enough to stop AUD/USD bulls from testing January and December monthly highs, which sit in the 0.7020/40 zone.


aud/usd Click here

aud/vol Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 02 - 12:30 PM

Credit Agricole Research maintains a structural bearish bias on CHF, expressing that via holding a long EUR/CHF position targeting a move towards 1.15.

"The CHF has been on the back-foot for most of the past two weeks, with progress by EU officials on the mostly grantbased rescue fund helping to guide the EUR/CHF cross higher. On top of that, it appears that the SNB has been continuing to intervene more aggressively in order to limit any safe haven buying interest," CACIB notes. 

"We remain in favour of gradual depreciation although short-term downside may prove more limited with further currency depreciation likely to ease pressure in order to keep up with more aggressive currency interventions," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jun 02 - 09:50 AM
  • After weeks of declines, USD/JPY option implied volatility meets demand

  • USD/JPY finally breaks 6-week range top 108.08 to test 108.50

  • Near 100-pips daily range - biggest since May 11

  • 100 pips covers cost of simple vanilla option straddle up to 3-week expiry

  • 1-month vol 5.4 to 5.6 Tues. Crisis peak 24.0, pre crisis low 4.5

  • If bigger daily ranges/gains persist, options could be back in play



JPY=EBS Click here

1-week and 1-month USD/JPY implied volatility Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 02 - 08:40 AM

Adds headline

  • Investors driven by upbeat risk, US-Sino trade concerns ebb slightly

  • US civil unrest helps weaken US$ but risk-on sentiment persists

  • Safe-havens US$ & yen sold while DE-IT yield spreads hold near recent tights

  • EUR/JPY rallies to 121.00 on EBS, EUR/USD rallies to 1.11875 on EBS

  • EUR/USD pierced the 61.8% Fib of 1.1495-1.0636 but is back below now

  • Techs are bullish; daily, monthly RSIs imply upside momentum remains

  • March 17 daily high (1.11895 EBS) is an impediment for bulls

  • Break of that daily high likely leads to test of 1.1240/50 resistance















eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jun 02 - 07:10 AM

The Reserve Bank of Australia has helped boost the AUD/USD in a month that usually sees it rise.
A study of AUD/USD's performance for each June since 2000 shows it has risen in 14 of the last 20 years, or 70% of the time.
Seasonality should not be considered in isolation, but it's a useful tool when combined with other factors.
Australia's central bank held rates at all-time lows on Tuesday and sounded less gloomy as the economy gradually re-opens during what is likely to be the worst quarter since the Great Depression.
The RBA left rates unchanged at 0.25% at its monthly policy meeting in a widely expected decision nL4N2DF0TK.
AUD/USD is now above the 0.6823 Fibonacci level, a 50% retrace of the 0.8136 to 0.5510 (2018 to 2020) drop, a weekly close above which will unmask the 0.7000 psychological level in the weeks ahead.
Related nL1N2DE0QFnL1N2DD06WnL1N2DD09O


AUD/USD Seasonality Chart: Click here

Weekly Fibo Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jun 02 - 05:55 AM

The European Central Bank could make or break the recent EUR/USD rise, which looks bullish from a technical standpoint.
The ECB meeting Thursday will be the main focus in Europe while euro zone data this week include final May PMIs, April unemployment and retail sales nL4N2DD09E.
The ECB is expected to increase its 750 billion-euro bond-buying programme, probably by around 500 billion euros.
But this might not be a done deal nL8N2DF1BS.
EUR/USD's outlook remains positive after three daily closes above the cloud top at 1.1066.
On Tuesday the market has broken the 1.1167 Fibo, a 61.8% retrace of the 1.1495 to 1.0636 March drop, a daily close above which will accelerate towards the March 16 1.1240 peak.
Tenkan and kijun lines are positively aligned, reinforcing the bullish market structure.
Traders should not be surprised about EUR/USD's recent strength, as a seasonality study of EUR/USD's performance for each June since 2000 shows it has closed up in 13 of the past 20 years (65% of the time) nL1N2DD09O.


Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jun 02 - 04:40 AM
  • AUD/USD hits 0.6838 after breaking above 0.6817 (Asian session high)

  • 0.6838 is the highest level since Jan 24 (0.6857 was the high that day)

  • Risk-sensitive AUD is benefitting from global equity gains

  • USD sentiment negatively impacted by unrest in the U.S. nL1N2DE0M9

  • China buys U.S. soybeans after halt to U.S. purchases ordered - sources

  • See: nL4N2DE2PT. RBA held cash rate at 0.25%, as expected nL4N2DF0TK

AUDUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jun 02 - 03:30 AM
  • Trades wholly within thick 106.71-108.23 cloud for seven sessions in a row

  • Fri's setback found support at 107.06 on the EBS, ahead of kijun at 107.04

  • USD/JPY looks likely retest the upper bounds of the cloud top

  • Tenkan and kijun lines are positive aligned, reinforcing the bullish bias

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. EUR/JPY range has been 119.65-120.01 on the EBS

  • EUR/USD break above a key Fibo will unmask the March 16 high nL1N2DF07Q

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jun 02 - 02:45 AM
  • Cable rises to 1.2554 amid a ray of light before latest EU-UK trade talks

  • 'We'll compromise if you do too, Britain tells EU' - The Times nFWN2DE0TG

  • 1.2554 is the highest level since May 1 (1.2600 was the high that day)

  • Recent GBP losses were influenced by pessimism about the EU-UK trade talks

  • UK PM Johnson plans talks with EU's von der Leyen this month-FT nFWN2DE0PZ

  • 1.2525 (Asia high) and 1.2506 (Monday's high) are now GBP/USD support levels

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 02 - 11:05 AM

Credit Suisse discusses GBP/USD technical outlook and flags a scope for a retest of key resistance at 1.2643/71.

"GBPUSD has seen another strong push higher following the break above its downtrend from early March, helped by the weakening USD, with strength having extended to the 78.6% retracement of the April/May fall at 1.2522. Whilst this should be allowed to cap at first for a pullback, the risk stays seen higher for a break in due course for a fresh challenge on what remains seen as more significant resistance from the April highs and 200-day average at 1.2643/48 and 1.2671 respectively. We would again expect significant sellers to show here," CS notes. 

"A close above 1.2671 though would instead suggest we are seeing a more significant turn higher, with resistance seen next at 1.2711 – the 78.6% retracement of the March collapse. Support for a pullback is seen at 1.2457 initially, then 1.2426, with 1.2375 now ideally holding to keep the immediate risk higher. A break can see a deeper retracement lower to 1.2330/22, but with better buyers expected ahead of here," CS adds. 

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 02 - 12:45 AM
  • RBA unchanged - statement nAZN00F1YN -0.2% pre RBA - E-mini S&P -0.4% led

  • Possible that the depth of the downturn will be less than earlier expected.

  • Economic outlook highly uncertain, likely long-lasting effects on economy

  • No real surprises, caution rules - AUD little changed around 0.6790

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track north - positive setup

  • 21 day Bollinger bands a good indicator of an over stretched market

  • Upper Bollinger band at 0.6768 suggests buying dips not breaks

  • 0.6715 NY low then 0.6656 200 DMA are initial support

aud 3 jun 2 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 01 - 11:45 PM
  • Flat towards the base of a 1.2484-1.2525 range with plenty of flow

  • Early gains evaporated as E-Mini S&P fell 0.6% on US protests nL1N2DE0M9

  • Times - UK to compromise on fisheries if EU eases demands nFWN2DE0TG

  • Current cable bounce is all about USD weakness, risk on, not GBP strength

  • Charts; momentum studies climb, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs base-rise, positive setup

  • 1.2499 upper 21 day Bollinger suggests overbought - buy dips not breaks

  • Earlier 1.2525 high then 1.2648 April high, initial resistance

  • London 1.2377 low then yesterday's 1.2329 base first supports

GBP 2 jun 2 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 01 - 10:40 PM
  • -0.3%, as risk appetite eases, E-Mini S&P -0.6% on US protests nL1N2DE0M9

  • Positive local markets, Nikkei +0.85%, AsiaxJP +0.2% and Brent crude +0.4%

  • No RBA change at 97.5% on OIS, may comment on TWI at pre coronavirus levels

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track north - positive setup

  • 21 day Bollinger bands a good indicator of an over stretched market

  • Upper Bollinger band at 0.6767 suggests buying dips not breaks

  • Earlier 0.6817, then 0.6879 Jan 23rd highs first resistance

  • 0.6715 NY low is initial support

aud 2 jun 2 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 01 - 08:20 PM
  • -0.05% after closing +1.1% with a broadly softer USD - E Mini S&P -0.4% caps

  • UK PM plans Brexit talks with EU's von der Leyen - FT nFWN2DE0PZ

  • Fundamental change in EU or UK stance required for compromise - unlikely

  • Current cable bounce is all about USD weakness, risk on, not GBP strength

  • Charts; momentum studies climb, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs base-rise, positive setup

  • 1.2500 upper 21 day Bolli suggests overbought - buy dips not breaks

  • NY 1.2506 high then 1.2510, 76.4%% April May fall initial resistance

  • London 1.2377 low then yesterday's 1.2329 low first supports



gbp jun 2 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jun 02 - 07:24 PM

G10: How To Trade This Month? - TD

By eFXdata  —  Jun 02 - 09:55 AM

TD Research flags its key trading opportunities in the month of June. 

"Lockdown exits have priced in too much optimism versus economic realities. Staggered US reopenings should intensify political pressures while the rhetoric between the US and China ratchets upward. European developments reduce the EUR's medium-term tail risks but create headaches for GBP, which has a twin deficit and Brexit problem," TD notes. 

"We maintain a defensive posture, remaining long USD, JPY versus GBP, EUR...NOK remains attractive on positioning and valuation, favoring topside against GBP and SEK. AUD still remains vulnerable in the short-run, suggesting short-term tops in AUDCAD and AUDNZD," TD adds.

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 01 - 07:00 PM
  • Flat after closing +0.2%, below key resistance, amid broad USD weakness,

  • UK PM plans Brexit talks with EU's von der Leyen - FT nFWN2DE0PZ

  • Fundamental change in EU or UK stance required - no signs it is likely

  • Charts - momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head north - positive setup

  • 1.1145 rising upper 21 day Bolli a good indicator of an overbought market

  • 21 day Bollinger suggests buying dips not breaks at these levels

  • 1.1148-1.1166, major resistance close - late march high and 61.8% March fall

  • 1.1100 870M strikes and early Europe 1.1154 high initial support-resistance

eur jun 2 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jun 01 - 06:45 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 1.9% higher as economic data from U.S., China boosts sentiment

  • Economic recovery hopes offset jitters over U.S civil unrest, U.S-China ties

  • Easing of lockdowns in Australia, hopes of more govt stimulus fuel rally

  • Commodities rally quickens gains; copper @ 3-month high, Dalian iron ore +6%

  • RBA meets Tuesday, expected to sound upbeat on economic recovery prospects

  • Strong resistance 0.6823,50% of 2018-2020 drop; break opens 100-WMA @ 0.6924

  • Support 0.6740-50, 0.6710-20, pivotal at 0.6675-85


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 02 - 08:47 AM

MUFG Research discusses the USD outlook in light of its sharp decline across the board. 

"The dollar depreciation in May was telling – in particular, the drop in the final week of the month was the largest weekly decline for the dollar (on DXY basis) since Jan 2018 when we were in the final leg of the dollar sell-off vs EUR from around 1.0600 to close to 1.2500. Back then (better EZ growth) like now (Recovery Fund) there were EUR factors but the dollar has sold off more broadly as well and the continued improvement in financial market conditions opens up the dollar to being exposed to the aggressive monetary stance implemented by the Fed to alleviate dollar illiquidity risks," MUFG notes. 

"The technical and fundamental backdrop has certainly worsened for the dollar but we are reluctant at this stage to make changes to our dollar depreciation forecasts which are starting to look cautious. The prospects of a risk correction are high which would prompt some reversal of this USD weakness. We are reluctant to materially adjust lower our USD levels vs EUR at this stage given the uncertain outlook and high level chance of a risk correction. Still, the fundamental backdrop for the dollar is deteriorating," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jun 01 - 03:05 PM
  • USD/JPY is statistically ripe for a range breakout nL1N2DE15I

  • Stuck above 107.03 kijun, below blizzard of 108.08+ resistance

  • 107.83 EBS high again capped by the upper 10-day Bolli band

  • Tenkan takes first dip since May 8 to 107.52, pivotal on close

  • Real action's in yen crosses, AUD/JPY above 200-DMA nL1N2DE0RQ

  • Biggest IMM net short since September getting squeezed

  • EUR/JPY's broken 2020 down TL used as support at today's 119.42 low

  • 120 seen as a major pivot point ahead of March's 121.14 high

Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 01 - 03:45 PM

Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook and highlights the importance of the 1.1165 level for near-term direction. 

"The DXY and EUR/USD saw a narrow trading range in April and May. These ranges have broken with month end flows driving EUR/USD through the 200d SMA at 1.1012 and the DXY below 98.52. Such breaks suggest these trends can continue in the short term. However, the last day of May formed a hammer candle on the DXY chart. This has a bullish interpretation for the first week of June," BofA notes. 

"Since the euro has yet to eclipse resistance from the March 30 high of 1.1165 plus the aforementioned bullish hammer for the DXY, it will be key for euro to break this resistance to see the trend accelerate higher in June. Resistances above that are 1.1280/1.1290, 1.1360 and 1.1450. DXY supports are at 97.83, 96.65 and 96.20," BofA notes. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Randolph Donney  —  Jun 01 - 12:05 PM

USD/JPY's standoff above the daily kijun at 107.035 and below major resistance by 108.08 looks likely to end soon, perhaps a good time to go long vol.
Daily highs have been contained by the upper 10-day Bolli band since May 19's 108.085 EBS high, while Bolli band spreads have narrowed to 4-1/2-year lows, suggesting a breakout is probable.
Aside from May's high and April 16 and 17 highs at 108.085, the 61.8% Fibo of the April-May drop and the 50-WMA are also at 108.08.
Beyond are the 38.2% Fibo of the March-May slide, Tuesday's daily cloud top and the 200-DMA at 108.17-34.
The weekly cloud base is steady at 107.95 until late June.
Into this resistance, IMM specs have increased their net spec short position to its biggest in 4-1/2 years.
With May reopening, early June high-frequency data ahead, U.S.-China tensions and the U.S. and Japanese stock markets closer to record highs than pandemic lows, a lot must go right to clear 108+ hurdles on rising Treasury yields and risk-on yen selling.
Nearby breakout targets are 109.38 topside -- less likely -- and 106 after a sub-107 close.


Chart Click here

Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 01 - 02:30 PM

CIBC Research adopts a cautious bias on AUD around current levels. CIBC targets AUD/USD around 0.65 in Q3.

"Despite the ‘feel good’ tone for the AUD, there are headwinds looming. For one, the current spat with China (Australia’s most important trading partner) over barley, meat and suspicion with respect to messaging over COVID19, could threaten inward investment from China at the margin. Additionally, prior yield advantages are no longer there, and the AUD is expected to benefit far less from speculative flows relative to the past," CIBC notes. 

"Finally, trends toward de-globalization will naturally harm commodity proxies in the currency markets – including the AUD. An earlier than anticipated dose of optimism has forced us to revise our AUD and NZD forecasts higher. As that confidence is tested, we see a stable environment for the AUD this year," CIBC adds. 

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary
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