• EUR/USD rally is stretched toward 1.1474 peak 20-day Bollinger bands

• Target (38.2%) for minor correction May-June drop is 1.1463

• Although traders are short, bets are small at $2.3 billion

• Price of natgas is highest since early March - start ME conflict

• Crude $85 per barrel ($15 increase since June)

• Oil rally followed the soft June CPI which triggered Tue's EUR/USD rally

• Futures remain biased toward US rate hikes (almost 50bps by June 2027)

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EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)