EUR/USD hit a 4-session high Friday as shorts were squeezed a bit into the weekend, but bulls have big impediments to overcome and face key U.S. risks next week before they can gain a more solid footing.
Key impediments sit near the 1.086-1.0875 and 1.0950-1.1000 zones.
The 23.6% Fibo of the 1.1214-1.076125 drop, 200-DMA and a series of daily highs sit within 1.0765-1.0775.
Short-term structural resistance, September's monthly low, daily cloud base and 50% Fibo of the 1.1214-1.076125 drop sit within or near the 1.0950-1.1000 zone.
Rallies above those zones, especially the latter, could put bulls in the driver's seat but key U.S. risks loom.
September PCE and JOLTS, Q3 GDP, October ADP, U.S. payrolls and ISM manufacturing PMI reports are due next week.
EUR/USD longs would need the data to indicate economic and jobs growth are slowing and that inflation is getting closer to the Fed's 2% target.
Such outcomes could see the dollar's yield advantage over the euro decline as German-U.S.
spreads US2DE2=RR may tighten.
Terminal rate spreads for the Fed SRAM26 and ECB FEIZ5 may tighten as investors could price in more aggressive cuts from the Fed.
EUR/USD could then rally through 1.0950-1.1000 and trigger stops.
Bulls would then have greater control and target the 1.1200-1.1225 area.
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