Aug 12 (Reuters) - The British pound usually struggles against the U.S. dollar in August, but that is not the case so far this year.

GBP/USD's August performance since 2000 shows it has fallen in 17 of the past 26 years, or 65% of the time. Seasonality should not be considered in isolation — it needs to be corroborated by other factors. The cable overall bias remains on the upside, and it could well break above the July 1.3556 peak. 14-day momentum remains positive and spot is underpinned by a key 1.3432 Fibonacci level, a 38.2% retrace of the recent 1.3274 to 1.3530 rise. These technical factors are reducing the likelihood that GBP/USD will close down in August. It opened the month at 1.3477 and is now consolidating above.

However, a break and daily close below the 1.3432 Fibo would shift overall bias back to the downside and put it on course to close August in negative territory.
GBP/USD Seasonality Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Kevin Liffey and Jan Harvey)