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Aug 13 - 11:55 AM

EUR/USD - FX Options Wrap-EUR/USD 1.20, JPY Crossfire, GBP Mercy, AUD Outlook

By Richard Pace  —  Aug 13 - 10:10 AM

Risk on and weak USD are fuelling renewed EUR/USD gains toward mid 1.18s, but price action still leans toward further range trading and isn't yet consistent with a renewed assault on 1.2000 barriers nL1N2FF0BO.

One-month implied volatility sold hard from last week's 8.6 peak to 7.0, and one-month risk reversals went from 0.85 to 0.5 EUR calls over puts.
Both are now meeting demand as EUR/USD rises, but in no rush to test last week's highs.

USD/JPY caught in this weak USD, risk on crossfire, limiting volatility and potential for a sustained directional move.
That doesn't favour options, which are now extending their setbacks from last week's peaks nL1N2FF0DL.

GBP/USD gains at the mercy of USD weakness, but trades still show concern for an eventual return to December highs at 1.3500 (1.3210 March highs/barriers immediate threat).
One-month implied volatility meets demand around 8.0 from 9.3 last week.

AUD/USD one-month setback lows at 9.75 as longs reduce exposure, confirming near-term AUD/USD outlook as key support/resistance holds nL1N2FF09G.

USD/TRY topside fears simmer nL1N2FF0KE

For more click on FXBUZ

Benchmark 1-month implied volatility Click here

EUR/USD FX option expiries Click here

1-3-12-month EUR/USD risk reversals Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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