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Jan 29 - 06:55 PM

CIBC: January FOMC: Fed in "Wait-and-See"Mode

By eFXdata  —  Jan 29 - 02:39 PM

Synopsis:

CIBC sees no surprises from today’s FOMC decision, with the Fed holding rates steady and making modest statement changes that reflect firm economic data and growing trade policy uncertainty.

Key Points:

  1. No Policy Change:

    • Fed funds rate remains on hold, as expected.
  2. Statement Adjustments:

    • More upbeat labor market tone.
    • Reference to inflation progress removed, but key phrase that “inflation remains somewhat elevated” was kept.
  3. Economic and Market Context:

    • Inflation progress has slightly improved, while jobs and economic data remain firm.
    • Trade policy uncertainty is rising with repeated tariff threats to Canada, Mexico, and others.

Conclusion:

CIBC sees the Fed in “wait-and-see” mode, balancing firm economic data with growing policy uncertainty. Markets will now look for more clarity on tariffs and upcoming inflation trends.

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary

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