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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
May 27 - 08:36 AM
GBP/USD - RPT-BUZZ-IMM: GBP/USD Shorts Ramp Up Amid Heightened Brexit Angst
First appeared on eFXplus on May 27 - 06:45 AM

Repeat with no changes

  • IMM spec USD longs rise in period ending May 21, GBP sellers lead way
  • GBP/USD sold hard amid heightened Brexit angst, spec sold 22,834 contracts
  • EUR specs sold 5,801 contracts now short 101,102 contracts
  • JPY shorts cover buy 6,388 contracts, net short falls to 55,192
  • AUD specs sold 2,0-65 contracts, net short now 66,111 amid low rate view

IMM Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 27 - 07:24 AM
EUR/GBP - Drop Likely To Be Limited By A Key Fibo
First appeared on eFXplus on May 27 - 05:10 AM
  • EUR/GBP relapsed from Fri's 0.8850 high, underlying bias remains on upside
  • Key 0.8757 Fibo, a 23.6% retrace of the 0.8456 to 0.8850 May rise, props
  • Our bid is at 0.8760, which is just ahead of the key Fibo
  • Also the 10 and 30-DMAs are positively aligned = overall bullish
  • Daily close below the 0.8757 Fibo will weaken the cross
  • GBP/USD's recovery could be halted by a key Fibo

EUR/GBP Trader:

Daily Fibo Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 27 - 06:12 AM
USD/JPY - FX Traders Limit USD/JPY's Upside As Trade Concerns Persist
First appeared on eFXplus on May 27 - 04:20 AM
  • U.S.-China, Japan trade concerns weighs on USD/JPY, stokes yen demand
  • IMM long USD/JPY positions to May 21 dropped, subsequent sales on EBS seen
  • USD/JPY outlook negative, but bears need a close a key Fibo
  • USD/JPY has seen a 109.28-109.59 range, according to prices on the EBS
  • EUR/JPY's correlation with USD/JPY high, 30/60-day logs are +0.70/+0.66
  • Trump presses Japan over trade gap nL4N23304B

EBS Flow Data Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 27 - 05:00 AM
GBP/USD's Recovery Could Be Halted By A Key Fibo
First appeared on eFXplus on May 27 - 02:55 AM
  • GBP/USD has made a decent recovery from the recent 1.2605 low
  • But it is likely to be stymied by the 1.2788 Fibonacci level
  • 1.2788 Fibo, a 23.6 percent retrace of the 1.3380 to 1.2605 drop
  • 14-day momentum remains negative, reinforcing underlying bearish structure
  • Only a break and daily close above 1.2788 Fibo needed to shift bias higher

GBP/USD Trader:

Daily Fibo Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 27 - 02:36 AM
AUD/USD - Idles With Bid Tone In Quiet Asia
First appeared on eFXplus on May 26 - 11:50 PM
  • AUD/USD had a jumpy start early Asia before consolidating around 0.6930
  • It popped up to 0.6941 before easing back to 0.6920 in the first hour
  • AUD/USD supported by high iron ore price & bearish turn in Fed expectations
  • Rallies likely to be limited ahead of expected RBA rate cut next week
  • Resistance at 21-day MA at 0.6958 and 38.2 of 0.7206/0.6865 at 0.6995
  • Support at the 10-day MA at 0.6907 and multiple daily lows at 0.6865/70

aud/usd Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 27 - 12:12 AM
GBP/USD - Conservatives Hit, As MPs Jockey To Be New PM
First appeared on eFXplus on May 26 - 10:50 PM
  • +0.2% with EUR/GBP -0.2% - Brexit party won the EU elections nL8N2320Z5
  • Total votes show more voted remain than Brexit, but splintered nL8N2320GL
  • Conservatives to lean to the right to combat the Brexit party nL8N2320QM
  • Momentum studies conflict, 10 & 21 DMAs trend south - net bearish setup
  • 1.2638, 76.4% 2019 rise proving resilient, break targets the 1.2409 2019 low
  • Close above the tested, falling 1.2745 10 DMA would suggest consolidation
  • Asian 1.2720/1.2754 range is initial support/resistance

gbp2 may 27 Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 26 - 09:48 PM
EUR/USD - EU Elections No Game Changer, As Signals Point Up
First appeared on eFXplus on May 26 - 07:05 PM
  • Greens and right wing improved after a strong 51% turnout in EU elections
  • Making a centrist coalition more complex, but still possible nL8N2320RY
  • Initial 1.1189 dip short lived, price back around the 1.1205 NY close
  • Base of 1.1100/1.1265 six week range tested last week - top eyed now
  • Momentum studies climb, bullish 5 & 10 DMA cross of 21 DMA - positive setup
  • Early 1.1189 low and 1.1226, 76.4% May fall initial support/resistance
  • 1.1200 457M strikes today

eur may 27 Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 26 - 08:36 PM
GBP/USD - RPT-BUZZ-IMM: GBP/USD Shorts Ramp Up Amid Heightened Brexit Angst
First appeared on eFXplus on May 26 - 07:00 PM

Repeat with no changes

  • IMM spec USD longs rise in period ending May 21, GBP sellers lead way
  • GBP/USD sold hard amid heightened Brexit angst, spec sold 22,834 contracts
  • EUR specs sold 5,801 contracts now short 101,102 contracts
  • JPY shorts cover buy 6,388 contracts, net short falls to 55,192
  • AUD specs sold 2,0-65 contracts, net short now 66,111 amid low rate view

IMM Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 26 - 05:00 PM
AUD/USD - Bears Scurry, Weak US Data Fans Fed Rate Cut Hopes
First appeared on eFXplus on May 26 - 03:20 PM
  • AUD/USD moves to higher end of consolidation range as U.S. data disappoints
  • Economy slows as U.S.-China trade dispute bites, Fed rate cut hopes rise
  • J.P. Morgan slashes U.S. Q2 GDP outlook to 1%
  • Expectations of aggressive RBA easing curbs AUD rally potential
  • AU bond yields @ record lows, traders ponder growing probability of 3 cuts
  • Resistance 0.6940-45 & 0.6960; support 0.6905-10, pivotal @ 0.6852-65

aud: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 24 - 05:00 PM
NZD/USD: 2019 Range Breakout Reconfirms M-Term Downtrend; Where To Target? - NAB
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 02:45 PM

NAB discusses NZD/USD technical outlook and adopts a bearish bias in the near and medium-term. NAB now targets NZD/USD at 0.6435 in 1-.month, and at 0.6250 in 3-months.

"Last week’s close below the previous 2019 range of 0.6575/80 to 0.6939/42 confirms that NZD/USD has returned to its multi-year downtrend. Since late 2016 NZD/USD has trended lower in a perfect parallel downtrend channel. The base of the channel is currently at 0.6250/70 and provides an excellent MT target.

The confirmed break of the previous 2019 range / rectangle has a textbook target at 0.6200/50 and coincides with the base of the channel in time," NAB notes. 

"ST, MT and LT momentum confirm a comprehensive negative MT momentum bias and maintain immense downward pressure in the coming weeks to months," NAB adds. 

 

Source:
NAB Research/Market Commentary
May 24 - 03:48 PM
GBP/USD - Boosted Slightly After PM May Resigns
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 01:05 PM
  • GBP/USD ends NY 1.2710 +0.41%, firm into NY close, NorAm range 1.2711-1.2647
  • May's exit brings little joy for GBP/USD
  • Shallow rally on news hints at lingering UK Brexit, political uncertainties
  • The crucial factor remains, traders are not short pounds
  • EUR/GBP -0.17% to 0.8817, EU elex and GBP rise on May exit weigh on cross

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 24 - 02:36 PM
USD/JPY - COMMENT-USD/JPY At Risk-Off Precipice Ahead Of Holiday
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 12:50 PM

USD/JPY has cracked yesterday and early today's 109.46 lows and is threatening a bearish weekly close amid lingering trade war angst and increasing concerns about the health of the U.S. economy.
Prices are nearing a holiday truncated week's completion below the weekly cloud base at 109.55 and close to the 38.2% retracement of the post-flash-crash 104.10-112.40 rebound at 110.23, as well as the weekly kijun at 109.07 that's close to May's 109.02 low.
A close below that cluster of support would likely be accompanied by fresh equities and Treasury yield drops, emblematic of distrust in the U.S. and China quickly resolving trade and structural disputes or for the Fed to ease swiftly enough to avert further safe haven trading weighing on USD/JPY.
If USD/JPY ends May below April's 110.66 low, it will confirm the same bearish, monthly candlestick signal that began the tumble to January's low .
Miserable U.S. PMI data yesterday and today's core durable goods miss that is yanking Q2 GDP estimates lower dim the prospects for U.S. yields and USD/JPY rises without some good news on trade.
A sub-109 close would likely squeeze out most of the remaining IMM yen spec shorts with a fall to 108.50 next.

Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 24 - 01:24 PM
GBP: Time To Start Trimming Shorts; CAD: Short AUD/CAD Attractive Into Next Week's BoC - TD
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 09:17 AM

TD Research discusses the current conditions of the FX market and some of its preferred tactical views.

"For the all the headline ping-pong this week the broad USD actually looks set to end the week lower. That partly reflects the fact that US risk assets are no longer immune to the trade skirmish, especially as some critical data releases massively underperformed expectations. Past strength of the USD will have negative implications for both growth and earnings. These drivers probably keep FX in wait-and-see mode until the G20," TD notes. 

"Still, this backdrop remains supportive of cross trades. We showed yesterday that short-term value trades have outperformed momentum. Following that script implies trimming short exposure to GBP and adding long GBPCHF.

On the flip side, AUD looks rich and that implies around a 1% move lower in AUDNZD. We also like downside in AUDCAD going into the BoC meeting next week," TD adds. 

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
May 24 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-May's Exit Brings Little Joy For GBP/USD
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 10:40 AM

Cable initially rallied when PM May announced she would step down as Conservative Party leader on June 7, but the celebration was brief as the market saw the event as the beginning of a new period of Brexit uncertainty that will cast a pall over the UK economy and the pound.
The pair rose to 1.2719 and has since fallen back near its pre-announcement levels in the mid 1.26's.
GBP bulls need a rise above the falling 10-DMA at 1.2763 to remove the existing bearish tone, with a move above the 200-DMA at 1.2956 giving GBP/USD bulls momentum.
Today's development leaves an assortment of Brexit options on the table once the new PM takes over nL5N2302BY, including second referendum, general elections and no-deal exit.
If worries over a no-deal Brexit and new general election pick up, GBP/USD finds light support at Thursday's low of 1.2605 and the lower 30-week Bolli at 1.2553.
More firm support is at 1.2409, the Jan. 3 and 2019 low.

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 24 - 11:00 AM
USD/JPY: Neutral Here; Unlikely To Move Much Either Way Through End Of May - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 08:46 AM

MUFG Research discusses tactical USD/JPY outlook and adopts a neutral bias, expecting the pair to trade in a 109-111 in the near-term.

"USD/JPY upside has been heavy since last week because of growing concerns that the trade friction between the US and China could be prolonged. Over the near term, USD/JPY is unlikely to hit the 111.00-level, with the US-Japan yield spread unlikely to widen. However USD/JPY downside firmness is clear, with the lower end only in the 109.00-level after the end of Golden Week," MUFG notes. 

JPY selling is unlikely to boost USD/JPY, while the break below the 110.00-level would probably support USDJPY because Japanese investors would be expected to buy more overseas securities. Overseas bond investing flows are strong, given the dearth of investing opportunities at home. USD/JPY will probably not be moving much either way through the end of May," MUFG adds. 

Source:
BTMU Research/Market Commentary
May 24 - 08:36 AM
USD/JPY - Sixth Attempt To Crack Key Support, Blow-Out Risk
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 06:05 AM
  • Hanging heavy within a tight range as dust settles on a sharp Thurs drop
  • Bear bias intact: run back to May 14/15 109.15 dble day low on the cards
  • Weekly action shows price again attacking the base of its cloud
  • Cloud base was breached last week but mkt failed to close below
  • The market has attempted six times to close under since Feb: blow-out risk
  • The cloud is thick and has a base at 109.55 this week

USD/JPY Trader:

USD/JPY Daily Candle Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 24 - 07:24 AM
GBP/USD - Falls Half-A-Cent From Post-May Exit News High
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 05:35 AM
  • Cable down half-a-cent from 1.2710 high immediately after PM May exit news
  • See: nL5N2300L0. 1.2710 = high since Thursday's 1.2605 low
  • 1.2605 = 20-week low, courtesy of heightened fears of a no-deal Brexit
  • Boris Johnson is the bookmakers' favourite to succeed May nL5N22Z4F0
  • BUZZ-GBP/USD could drop to 1.20 if Boris gets the gig
  • 0.8804 was immediate EUR/GBP low after May exit news, 0.8832 = ensuing high

GBPUSD: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 24 - 06:12 AM
EUR/GBP - Bulls Hope 0.8840 Finally Breaks After May Speaks
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 04:00 AM
  • Cross met fresh headwind pre-0.8840 after following EUR/USD up early Europe
  • Offers just shy of 0.8840 (Feb 14 high) also capped gains Wednesday-Thursday
  • 0.8838 and 0.8837 were Thursday's highs, with 0.8790 marking the interim low
  • EUR/GBP bulls hope expected May exit news prompts fresh selling of the pound
  • See: nL5N2300L0. EUR/GBP has risen for a record-breaking 14 days in a row
  • 0.8850 = 1.13 GBP/EUR. 0.90 and 0.91 among bull targets beyond

EURGBP: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 24 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Is This EUR/USD Rise Just Another Chance To Sell?
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 02:50 AM
  • EUR/USD new trend low @ 1.1106 yesterday then rebound reaching 1.1205 today
  • Pair closed over 21-DMA @ 1.1189 but drivers for the rally have dissipated
  • Rebound was triggered by risk aversion stemming stocks and oil falls
  • Both oil and stocks have stabilised. Mood to pare euro shorts likely fades
  • Further rise likely depends on initiation tech inspired longs, counter trend
  • 55-DMA 1.1237/May 13 high to offer strong resistance. Trends are your friend

EUR/USD daily Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 24 - 02:36 AM
USD/JPY - Teases Negative Chart Cues, 109.55 Support Critical
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 12:50 AM
  • USD/JPY stays soggy at 109.60 even as US yields stage minor bounce
  • UST 10y last at 2.329% vs prev close 2.320%; E-minis +0.3%
  • Japan core CPI rises 0.9% y/y, as expected; little effect on JPY
  • But USD/JPY charts will turn negative pending Fri close below 109.55
  • Weekly Bollinger downtrend channel activated will encourage sellers
  • Weekly Ichimoku Cloud base would also be breached, exposing downside

WeeklyJPY: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
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