TD Research discusses the latest readings from its G20 Google mobility factors.
"Our G20 Google mobility factor has peaked and started to reverse, leaving some gaps in the USD, the SPX, and the VIX. The SPX runs a 10% premium to the growth data, pointing to a move back to 3,220, while the VIX should be trading above 30. Historically, September has offered poor risk-adjusted returns for the SPX. Our growth signals offer less USD bias but themes are overpopulated," TD notes.
"Our core global growth framework offsets the USD discount in the mobility framework, highlighting that stretched positioning is a better reason to take some chips off the table. It also supports the waning exceptionalism story, suggesting to use USD rallies as opportunities to sell," TD adds.