ANZ Research discusses EUR/USD outlook this week.

"The key risk this week is inflation. Germany’s flash CPI for May will set the tone, followed by the EA’s flash CPI. Consensus is already expecting headline EA CPI near 3.2%, above the 3% print for April. If CPI meets or misses expectations it will reopen the rate-hold debate and weaken the EUR more quickly. The market is broadly pricing-in a June hike; so, in terms of price action, EUR/USD will be more sensitive to an inflation miss on the downside, which could drive sharp moves lower and test 1.153. An above-expectation print would firm up a June hike, which is largely already reflected in the pair," ANZ notes.

"Geopolitics remains the biggest catalyst. Any good news around the Middle East conflict will see the EUR/USD higher, testing 1.18, but until then the pair is likely going to remain within recent ranges, unless the CPI misses and reports a less inflationary outcome in EA, which will see the pair lower," ANZ adds.