Aug 7 (Reuters) - FX traders should be aware that EUR/JPY usually falls in August, and this could occur again in 2026.

EUR/JPY has closed down in August in 18 of the last 26 years, or 69% of the time, including in 2024 and 2025. However, seasonality needs to be combined with other factors for it to be a useful tool. The scale of the recent intervention and the risk of further action should keep the EUR/JPY bias on the downside for now.

EUR/JPY has made recovery attempts after the recent intervention-driven slump, registering a close on Wednesday at 182.49 — a Fibo 38.2% retrace of the 187.43 to 179.44 (EBS) drop. However, the 14-day momentum reading remains negative, highlighting the underlying bearish market structure. Note USD/JPY usually also drops in August, seasonal trends show. The 30- and 60-day log correlation coefficients between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are both above +0.50, meaning the two currency pairs will likely weaken in tandem.
Daily Chart


Seasonality Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)