The following are brief expectations for today's October FOMC decision as compiled from the related notes of 10 banks and eFX Sentiment Indicators.

Out of the 10 banks below, 8 banks expect a hold, 1 bank (BofA) expects a hike, and 1 bank (ANZ) sees a 50-50 outcome for a hawkish hold or a 25bp hike. On the Press Conference, the expectations are leaning for Fed Warsh to sound hawkish.

On the USD front, both of eFX's LSI and ISI Indicators point to USD tactical and strategic built into the meeting, suggesting that investors may look to buy USD dips if emerging post the meeting especially vs GBP and CHF.

MUFG: The FOMC is very likely to remain on hold but the OIS indicates close to 10% probability of a hike. A hold would likely be accompanied by a statement similar to the statement in September when the FOMC hiked underlining the fact that the economy remains resilient. There is a risk that there could be some dissents and that would certainly be one signal of the leaning and would strengthen the market’s conviction of a hike in December. A December hike is close to fully priced. If the press conference is similar in tone to previous public engagements by Chair Warsh he is likely to come across as hawkish.

Bank of America: BofA economists are the market outlier in their call for an Oct hike.. We agree the Fed should hike, but markets price a Fed willing to wait until after the election, especially given rising credit risks. Ultimately, persistent inflation could drive further Fed tightening...USD risks skew to the downside on a hold. A convincing, hawkish hold could leave the USD and rates broadly near current levels, while a dovish or poorly explained hold risks renewed Fed credibility concerns, bear steepening in 2s30s and potentially significant USD weakness.

Goldman Sachs: Comments from FOMC participants since their last meeting point to a compromise to raise the funds rate every other meeting. This means that the FOMC is set to skip raising rates at its October meeting but is likely to deliver a second hike in December...We do not expect significant new information from the press conference.

Danske: We expect the Federal Reserve to keep policy rates unchanged at the October meeting, in line with consensus. Markets price in a 15-25% probability of a hike.  Most central FOMC members have signalled they can wait until December before hiking again, though a few see more urgency. We expect 2-3 votes for a hike.

Morgan Stanley: We expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.75-4.0% in October, with two dissents. Chairman Warsh is likely to signal further tightening while emphasizing a gradual, trend-dependent approach. We expect 25bp hikes in December and March, with risks skewed toward more tightening.   No dissents, financial stability concerns, or a benign inflation assessment would be dovish signals. Three or more hawkish dissents, explicit tightening guidance, or heightened concerns about inflation and energy spillovers would be hawkish.

Credit Agricole: e expect the Fed to keep rates on hold. The tightening cycle should resume in December, however, and result in two additional hikes by March 2027, according to our US economist. That being said, ours is a less hawkish Fed outlook compared to the US rates markets, at the time of writing. We continue to think many Fed related positives are already in the price of the USD and expect the October FOMC meeting to confirm that view especially if the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh fails to signal that another rate hike is imminent.

SEB: Unchanged. Key Fed policy makers have signalled a pause to await more data. Warsh abstained from his usual hawkish comments in his appearance at the IMF. Some members have indicated concerns about rising yields, while jittery equity markets may weigh on financial conditions in a situation where the stock market has been highlighted as supportive for the economy. However, high energy prices and more worrisome inflation pipeline in the PPI mean Fed.

Westpac: Given the concerns shown by Committee members over price risks and their collective resolve to return annual inflation to target, the above data could easily justify a follow-up hike at the October meeting. That said, Committee members who have spoken recently have shown patience with respect to assessing the economy and positioing policy. The market has responded, effectively pricing out the chance of an October hike in favour of a December move, which is also our expectation.

ANZ: We see two broad scenarios: Hawkish hold: Rates are left unchanged, but Chair Warsh emphasises that inflation remains too high and a rate hike in December is live. OIS is largely reflecting this outcome (20bp priced) so it would be unlikely to shift the DXY meaningfully. Any dissents will indicate how hawkish the FOMC is tilting. 25bp hike: The Fed responds to recent firm inflation data with a rate rise. Because markets are pricing this as only a modest probability (6%), the USD would likely rally sharply as investors adjust expectations for the timing of further hikes. However, we do not expect such a rally would last. With OIS reflecting a total of two or three hikes to September 2027, it is difficult to see much room for additional hikes to be priced in.

ING: Despite hot inflation prints in September and the Fed having signalled that further action to tame inflation will likely be needed, markets and economists are united in expecting the central bank to leave interest rates on hold at the 28 October FOMC meeting. Ongoing concerns about elevated price pressures mean we do expect a December interest rate rise.