• USD/CHF 1-mo. butterflies are above USD/JPY for first time in 2 years

• Premiums for these USD/CHF outlier options is usually below that of USD/JPY

• The rise in premiums lifts CHF convexity to its highest level since August

• High convexity suggests higher USD/CHF volatility if spot moves from range

• Part of rise is due to EUR/CHF's jump on Ukraine developments, EU tariffs

• Other convexity pricing may be linked to US recession concerns, positioning

• CFTC shows levered accounts are most CHF short since July

• USD/CHF is holding steady above its Nov. 6 breakout high of 0.8773

• A drop below that level may see unwinding of CHF shorts

• Alternatively, a Ukraine ceasfire offers potential for a EUR/CHF rise to par

• US. Pres. Trump is set to speak with Russia's Putin about Ukraine on Tuesday
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(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)