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Nov 10 - 06:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Sterling Could Sink If BoE Slashes Rates In 2024

By Rob Howard  —  Nov 10 - 04:55 AM

Cable might drop to 1.15, if not 1.12, if the Bank of England turns ultra-dovish and cuts interest rates by 100 basis points or more by September 2024 - especially if the Federal Reserve is much less aggressive in reducing rates next year.

Five out of 55 economists polled by Reuters expect the Bank Rate to be 4.25% (or lower) by end-September next year, with another eight predicting 4.5% and 15 expecting 4.75%.
All of those forecasts are more dovish than markets, which are currently pricing in around 40 bps BoE rate cuts by September 2024.

The probability of the BoE kicking off an easing cycle as early as spring 2024 will increase if the UK economy shrinks in the fourth quarter of this year.
Data published on Friday showed the UK economy failed to grow in Q3, but at least managed to avoid the start of a recession.

GBP/USD was last at 1.15, and 1.12, in November 2022.

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