EUR/USD heads into the weekend with the chances of a sharp fall far higher than sustained strength.
President Macron holds a lead in the polls of 55.5%-57.5%. While lead is strong, there is concern regarding voter turnout.
Election polls in recent years have a mixed track record, so Macron is no certainty.
Should Le Pen win, the whole outlook for EU policy would change, as she is sceptical of a federal Europe nL2N2WJ0HT
A Macron victory will likely result in a knee-jerk euro bounce on Monday, while a Le Pen win would see the euro sharply lower on major uncertainty surrounding future EU policy.
The euro has been the bellwether for sentiment on the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
There is no sign of a diplomatic compromise, as the war intensifies, which will continue to cap euro strength.
Central bank policy remains a negative for EUR/USD, as the ECB ponders the timing of ending QE and raising rates nL2N2WJ0CL, while the Federal Reserve appears to have declared war on inflation nL2N2WJ1W7.
A Le Pen victory could see a test of 1.0636 2020 low, which would be a 1.87% fall, while a Macron win would perhaps trigger another test of 1.0921, 38.2% of the March-April fall, currently a 0.75% bounce.
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