Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs anticipates potential for a more aggressive rate cut from the RBNZ in November, with a 75bps cut on the table, although this is unlikely to push AUD/NZD significantly higher. Despite a dovish outlook, the New Zealand dollar’s downside may be limited by already-pessimistic market positioning.

Key Points:

• Goldman now forecasts two further rate cuts from the RBNZ: 50bps in both November and February, with an elevated risk of a 75bps cut in November.
• New Zealand’s economic fundamentals, including weak labor market indicators, support an aggressive rate-cutting cycle.
• Inflation remains high but has dropped within the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range, likely to ease further due to slower growth and rising unemployment.
• AUD/NZD is unlikely to react significantly as markets are already positioned short on the NZD, suggesting limited downside.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs expects the RBNZ to front-load rate cuts given New Zealand’s weaker domestic conditions. While a 75bps cut would be an aggressive move, its impact on AUD/NZD may be muted due to existing market pessimism on NZD, limiting further currency depreciation.