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Oct 08 - 08:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Tin Hats Might Come In Handy For Sterling Traders

By Rob Howard  —  Oct 08 - 07:02 AM

"Events, dear boy, events", the quote often attributed to former British Prime Minister Harold McMillan, might prove a useful template for sterling traders as autumn turns into winter.

Events will certainly impact Bank of England interest rate expectations -- which have become progressively more hawkish since the BoE's last monetary policy announcement on Sept.
23, and influence GBP.

On Friday, UK interest rate futures moved to fully price a Bank Rate rise from 0.1% to 0.75% by September 2022, versus November 2022 earlier this week and December 2022 last week. nL1N2R40I4

Any such hike to 0.75% is expected to be delivered in a first increment of 15 basis points and subsequent increments of 25 bps -- although the Polish central bank's shock 40 bps hike from 0.1% this week means it might be safer to expect the unexpected. nL8N2R23U3

Friday also saw the BoE's Financial Policy Committee warn that markets could face a sharp correction. nL8N2R42AK

Related column/comments: nL8N2B47TOnL1N2QW0Q4nL1N2QQ0HH

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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