Danske Bank has revised down its forecasts for EUR/CHF, emphasizing several key factors affecting the currency pair:
SNB's Policy Rate Hike:
- Danske expects the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to raise its policy rate by a final 25 basis points at the upcoming September meeting, taking it to 2.00%. However, this is seen more as fine-tuning monetary policy rather than as a game-changing move for long-term bullish sentiment on the Swiss Franc (CHF).
FX Intervention to Cap EUR/CHF:
- Danske also expects that SNB's continued foreign exchange intervention will keep a cap on EUR/CHF in the near term.
Fundamentals and Financial Conditions:
- Based on underlying fundamentals and continued tight financial conditions, Danske is lowering its profile for EUR/CHF. They now target the cross at 0.94 in 6-12 months, down from a previous forecast of 0.95.
Potential Upside for EUR/CHF:
- If the SNB decides to fully stop intervening in the FX market, Danske sees potential for EUR/CHF to rise in the near term.
Danske Bank has revised down its EUR/CHF forecast, attributing the change to the potential for fine-tuning by the SNB, ongoing FX intervention, and underlying financial conditions. However, they note that if the SNB discontinues its FX intervention, there could be near-term upside potential for EUR/CHF.