Today’s price action in the AUD/USD is a snapshot of the whippy price moves over the past four weeks caused by the conflicting factors driving sentiment.
The AUD/USD is supported by U.S./China trade optimism due to its proxy status for China and the boost it is giving to equity and commodity markets.
Weighing on AUD/USD sentiment is a dovish shift in RBA expectations and growing concerns over the future path of the Australian economy.
Adding more weight is the rise in U.S Treasury yields and widening gap with Australian government bond yields.
Economists are starting to pencil in a downside surprise to Wednesday’s Q4 Australian GDP release, as the partials leading up to the release have been disappointing and will be a drag on the outcome.
The market is expecting +0.4 percent Q/Q.
A number worse than +0.3 percent will give confidence for those predicting an RBA cut by the end of 2019.
The conflicting factors driving the AUD/USD have kept the pair confined to a 0.7054-0.7207 range despite the whippy price action.
A break below 0.7050 should see decent follow-through, while the same can be said if the AUD/USD breaks above the 200-day moving average at 0.7250.
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