• USD/JPY firms toward top of 142.25-142.52 range in low holiday turnover

• Second round of Japan-US trade negotiations next week

• Japan doesn't manipulate currency, Fin Min Kato told parliament

• BOJ Gov Ueda said will keep raising rates if inflation rises toward 2%

• Core CPI accelerated in March due to food costs

• New ambassador to Japan said US, Japan need work together on defense

• More auto adjustments, Toyota may shift some production to US

• Series of lower daily highs continues to weigh though momentum has stalled

• Multiple clouds offer resist. at higher levels; monthly cloud bottom 145.80

• Supp: 141.62 weekly low; 142.43 Sept 17 high; 140.69 lower BOllinger

• Resist: 143.11, Thsdy high; 143.81 9-EMA, 144.00 Apr 10 low

• IMF/World Bank meeting, Japan PMIs early next week
Yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD stays to very narrow 1.1362-1.1386 range in holiday trade

• Risk tone improved Asia on hopes US-China tariff battle may subside

• Sectry State Rubio says US may exit Russia-Ukraine peace deal if no progress

• Pair keeps bullish bias with 5-DMA lending nearby support at 1.3535

• 55-DMA looks to cross above 200-DMA at 1.0753

• Needs to top 1.1474 YTD high and 1.15 barriers to see upward momentum build

• Remains overbought on RSI as congestion builds above 1.1242 April 10 high

• No US data, Fed Daly to speak and G20 fin mins/CBers set to meet

• EU flash PMIs, consumer conf. and trade among data points next week
EUR

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY, major pairs mostly in stasis in Tokyo Good Friday trading

• USD/JPY in tight 142.25-52 EBS range with flows few and far between

• Same for JPY crosses which hold for the most part steady in tight ranges

• Some Japanese headlines from FinMin Kato, BOJ Ueda but taken in stride

• Higher Japan CPI data taken in stride too but suggests BOJ to stay hawkish

• EUR/USD 1.1360-86 EBS, well within recent 1.1264-1.1474 range since Apr 11

• GBP/USD better bid between 1.3269-87, holding below 1.3292 Wednesday high

• AUD/USD bid too between 0.6367-94, market still seen heavy from 0.6400

• Some option expiries today despite Good Friday market holidays

• EUR/USD 1.1390 E1.1 bln, AUD/USD 0.6350 A$750 mln, also USD/JPY 142 $745 mln

• Related , , , on JP CPI
USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/USD hourly:


AUD/USD hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD and EUR/JPY doing little in quiet Tokyo trading

• Most major markets aside from Tokyo closed for Good Friday

• EUR/USD 1.1360-86 EBS, holding below recent highs, 1.1474 April 11

• Sideways since then with downside limited to 1.1264 Tuesday

• Despite the holiday, E1.4 bln in option expiries at 1.1390 strike today

• To provide some gravitational pull? To help cap any moves to upside?

• EUR/JPY on hold between 161.87-95 EBS, in area of 161.75 100-DMA

• Support from 161.57 200-HMA, buying below recently profitable

• EUR mostly unfazed following ECB rate cut yesterday

• Markets betting on more ECB cuts but effect on EUR limited

• Related comment , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Good Friday and most major markets in Asia aside from Tokyo closed

• Singapore and Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand closed

• Most of continental Europe and the UK also closed today, Monday

• Tokyo, the US only markets open today, US will be closed Easter Monday too

• Thin and maybe choppy trading eyed in Tokyo, caution to reign

• This with Japan-US trade negotiations on, IMF/World Bank meets next week

• Market could react to any major news on US tariffs, trade, et al

• USD/JPY 142.30-52 EBS so far on very little volume

• US yields still on heavy side yesterday, JGB yields holding mostly steady

• US Treasury 2s indicated @3.799%, 10s @4.332%, JGB 2s @0.632%, 10s @1.291%

• Some option expiries today - 141.50 $300 mln, 142.00 $745 mln, 142.50s too

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Japan/US talks , , IMF view

• Fed-speak, et al , ,
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

April 17 (Reuters) - EUR/USD fell on Thursday after the European Central Bank cut interest rates, as expected, and cautioned that U.S. tariffs may significantly impact economic growth, increasing expectations for further policy easing.

The common currency was also hampered by a jump in oil and higher Treasury yields after a series of comments by U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni expressed some optimism about resolving U.S.-European trade tensions though there is no hurry to make deals. Trump also suggested that a Ukraine minerals deal may be signed next Thursday and that he is not in a hurry to launch an attack on Iran over its nuclear program. Separately, Trump said, via social media, that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's termination "cannot come fast enough" and that rates should have been lowered already, later criticizing Fed policy making. The Wall Street Journal later reported that Trump has discussed firing Powell for months and talked about it with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Warsh has advised against trying to fire Powell. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he sees no imminent need for a change in central bank interest rate policy as Trump administration tariffs are likely to drive up inflation, weaken growth and push up unemployment. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said trade tensions and sweeping shifts in the global trading system will trigger downward revisions but no global recession is expected.

EUR/USD fell to 1.1336 following the ECB's rate cut and stayed lower throughout the session as it continues to adjust from overbought levels. Support is forming above the April 10 high of 1.1241, with risk reversals indicating potential upside risks beyond 1.15 barriers. A drop below the 2024 high of 1.1213 signals a deeper pullback. Markets currently anticipate cuts at the next two ECB meetings, which would bring the benchmark rate to 1.75%.

GBP/USD rose marginally though largely held to a narrow range before the Easter holidays. Support is seen near 1.32 with resistance at the year-to-date high of 1.3292. Focus will be on UK flash PMIs and comments by Bank of England officials next week.

USD/JPY edged up, underpinned by higher oil and firmer yields. The pair rose briefly after Trump said that he had a very productive meeting with Japan trade representatives on Wednesday though a series of lower highs continues to weigh on the pair. Nearby resistance is seen at the 144.55 April 4 low with solid support developing just above 141.60. A short-covering rally could ensue if oil continues to climb.

Tokyo focus will be on upcoming nationwide CPI numbers Friday.

Treasury yields were up 1 to 6 basis points as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up about 3 basis points to +50.3bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.25% in modest pre-holiday turnover.

Oil jumped 3.25% on trade deal hopes.

Gold fell 0.90% and copper dropped 1.5%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.25%, USD/JPY +0.40%, GBP/USD +0.22%, AUD/USD +0.28%, DXY +0.01%, EUR/JPY +0.16%, GBP/JPY +0.58%, AUD/JPY +0.69%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• AUD/USD opened NY near 0.6350 after 0.63335 traded overnight, rally extended

• Pair lifted into positive territory on UDS/CNH dip below 7.3000, AUD/JPY rally above 91.00

• Copper and equity gains also helped underpin AUD/USD gains

• 0.6391 traded in NY's morning, pair neared 0.6380 late, traded up +0.15%

• Techs are bullish; rising daily & monthly imply upward momentum is in place

• Daily & monthly bull hammer candles reinforce bullish tech signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP +0.1%, holds narrow range, respects support at 1.32

• Lack of dollar appeal keeps GBP/USD on the frontfoot

• Price action subdued ahead of Easter holidays

• Resistance: 1.3292 (YTD high), close above would open up 1.3434 (2024 high)

• EUR/GBP pullback resumes, attempts retest of 200-week MA (0.8545)

• Looking ahead - UK flash PMIs, BoE's Huw, Lombardelli due next week
gbpusd hourly chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Cable has traded on a 1.32 handle since Tuesday's North American open

• 1.3203-1.3259 defines Maundy Thursday range-to-date (low before high)

• Offers expected pre-1.33 (1.3292 was Wednesday's six-month high)

• Trump says Fed chair Powell's termination "cannot come fast enough"

• Fed's Williams sees no looming need to change monetary policy - Fox Business

• Reuters poll-62 of 101 economists see Fed on hold until at least July

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

BofA sees precautionary signs of stress in US funding markets, particularly around repo rates and short-term futures, though tensions have subsided for now. On yields, supply/demand pressures could push 10Y USTs up to 5.75%, beyond which the Fed may have to step in as a buyer of last resort.

Key Points:

1. Funding Market Stress — Flickers, Not Fire Yet:

   • Early last week, overnight UST repo rates spiked, exceeding quarter-end levels—pointing to liquidity strain.

   • April SOFR/FF futures were heavily sold after the weak 3-year UST auction, suggesting skepticism around Treasury demand.

   • However, stronger 10Y and 30Y auctions helped ease concerns.

   • Attention now shifts to tax-day liquidity drain (mid-April), which could revive funding pressures as collateral settles.

2. How High Can Yields Go?

   • Drawing parallels with the UK’s Truss-era yield shock, BofA estimates that 10Y UST yields could rise to 5.25–5.75% in a similar loss-of-confidence scenario.

   • Beyond this point, market dysfunction may force the Fed to intervene—not to ease, but to restore functioning.

Conclusion:

While funding pressures have cooled, BofA warns that stress could return, especially around April tax-related liquidity needs. Meanwhile, in a supply-driven rate spiral, UST yields near 5.75% may be the point where the Fed must step in, even without a policy pivot.

Synopsis:

ANZ remains constructively bullish on EUR/USD, noting that recent gains above 1.11 are supported by persistent USD weakness. While EU sentiment has soured post-tariffs, positioning data suggests the EUR long trade is not yet overcrowded, keeping dips shallow in the near term.

Key Points:

• EUR/USD Resilience:
  Despite deteriorating sentiment from April ZEW and Sentix surveys, EUR/USD has held above 1.11, signaling strong support from USD weakness.

• EU Sentiment Turns Lower:
  German ZEW expectations plunged 66pts to -14, and current conditions sit near pandemic lows. This aligns with broader EU pessimism and points to potential softness in upcoming PMI data.

• Positioning Not Overstretched:
  CFTC data shows EUR/USD net longs are still modest, driven more by short covering than aggressive long buildup. This suggests the trade is not yet crowded.

• Cross Risks:
  While EUR/USD remains supported, downside may appear on non-USD crosses like EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF, particularly if PMIs disappoint.

Conclusion:

ANZ maintains a positive near-term outlook for EUR/USD as USD headwinds persist, but acknowledges that EUR cross-pair risks are rising with faltering EU data. The EUR/USD rally still has room to run, especially as positioning remains far from euphoric.

• Cable has traded a 43 pip range on Maundy Thursday thus far; 1.3203-1.3246

• 1.3203 is lowest level since Wednesday's six-month high of 1.3292

• Drop to 1.3203 followed hawkish guidance from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday

• Trump says end of Powell's term "cannot come fast enough" (Truth Social)

• Powell's term ends in May 2026. ECB 25 bps rate cut expected at 1215 GMT

• Reuters poll: 62 of 101 economists see Fed on hold until at least July

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD bull cycle likely to extend above 1.1500 eventually

• Continued trading above the broken 1.1271 Fibo is a very bullish sign

• 1.1271 Fibo is 61.8% retrace of the 1.2349 to 0.9528 (2021 to 2022) EBS drop

• Scope for bigger gains to 1.1683 Fibo, 76.4% of the same 1.2349-0.9528 fall

• 14-week momentum remains positive, that adds to the bullish bias

• If EUR/USD slips back below 1.1271 Fibo, that would hint at a new top

• USD's momentum still negative . Previous update

Weekly Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Impressive seven consecutive daily bull closes for GBP/USD

• New trend high of 1.3292 Wednesday but GBP fell sharply into the close

• A long upper candle shadow highlighting demand fade

• An accelerating trend can also ring alarm bells

• However, tight ranges Wednesday-Thursday: easing the overbought condition

• Daily RSI flat lining at 65.00 and slow stochs poised to cross bearishly

• Short-term adjustment risk but weekly chart still significantly bullish
GBP/USD daily candle chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Dollar attempts bounce into Easter weekend

• USD/JPY has rebounded from Asia's 141.62 low, lowest level since Sept 2024

• Recovery as hit 142.89 so far, on the EBS, in London trading

• There is considerable downside risk , 14-day momentum negative

• EUR/JPY is at risk of bucking its usual positive April trend

• Tokyo's negotiator: exchange rates not part of talks

• The yen is the wrong gambit in any US-Japan trade row

Daily Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD paused after rapid gains led to overbought situation

• The 55-DMA is about to rise above the 200-DMA - Golden Cross

• Overbought conditions have been alleviated on daily chart

• Top 20-day Bollinger 1.1454 and rising, now close 2025 peak at 1.1474

• Dips have been modest (reaching 1.1264) supporting bullish sentiment

• FX traders have little to fear so they are gambling

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable respects 1.3200 support point as dollar benefits from hawkish Powell

• 1.3200 is a former resistance level (1.3201 was Monday's high)

• Sub-figure support points include 1.3146 (April 11 high) and 1.3125

• Offers pre-1.33 capped GBP/USD at six-month high on Wednesday

• There is a decent size 1.3300 option expiry for the pre-Easter NY cut

• BlueBay is short USD. Raft of U.S. data due at 1230 GMT; claims f/c 225k

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Off 0.15% in an active 1.3203-1.3242 FX Matching range with the USD +0.25%

• Small risk recovery in Asia, E-mini S&P +0.6% - FTSE -0.3% with Wall Street

• There is no tier one UK data or BOE events ahead of the Easter long weekend

• Sterling likely driven by risk appetite, the USD, and fallout from the ECB

• Charts - yesterday's 1.3292 2025 trend high sustains the current uptrend

• 5, 10, & 21-day moving averages rise, as 21-day Bollinger bands expand

• Daily momentum studies climb - positive signals suggest further gains

• Tuesday's 1.3165 low and this week's 1.3068 base are initial supports

• The 2024 1.3434 high is the next significant resistance
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD steadies as liquidity dries up before Easter long weekend

• Pair propped up above 55-DMA, needs momentum to break 0.6390 resistance

• AU employment data shows expected rebound, no negative surprises

• AUD supported by brewing doubts over long-standing strong USD policy

• Trade war developments remain key; U.S. jobless claims Thur may impact

• AUD range Asia 0.6353-76, support 0.6180 0.5910, resistance 0.6390
AUDUSD 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD steadies after AU employment data reveals no big surprises

• Mar employment +32.2k jobs (poll +40.0k), unemployment 4.1% (poll 4.2%)

• Stop-losses gathered above 0.6390 resistance; AUD likely to extend rally

• AUD stays supported amid doubts over long-standing strong USD policy

• Trade war developments remain key; U.S. jobless claims Thur may impact

• AUD range Asia 0.6353-76, support 0.6180 0.5910, resistance 0.6390
AUD 4 hour Chart

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY +0.40% as Japan minister says there was no discussion with US on FX

• Economy minister Akazawa says agreed to hold second meeting this week

• Trump jumps into tariff talks with Japanese officials, hails 'big progress'

• USD upside limited as risk aversion and lower US yields weigh

• Powell says Fed remains in wait-and-see mode, faces tough scenario

• Says larger-than-expected tariffs may mean higher inflation, slower growth

• Supports 141.65-75, resistance 142.60-70, 143.00' Asia range 141.62-142.58
Dollar Dominance:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Steady, after closing up 1.05%, leading the U.S. dollar lower - off 0.8%

• Ukraine, US make 'substantial progress' on minerals deal, Kyiv says

• ECB to cut rates 25bp again to help the economy overcome trade turmoil

• Market focus will be on the tone of the Statement and the press conference

• Charts - 21-day Bollinger bands expand, 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages rise

• Daily momentum studies climb - signals retain a positive trending setup

• Friday's 1.1474 top and then the 1.1495 2022 high are the first resistance

• This week's 1.1264 low and then Friday's 1.1192 base are the initial support

• Close below 1.1048, 0.382% of the Feb/Apr rise would end the topside bias

• 1.1360 774mln and 1.1500 780mln are the nearest significant April 17 strikes
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY in an entrenched downtrend, closes 1% lower Wednesday

• Drops to lowest since Sep 30 as US-Japan trade talks get underway

• Trump to personally attend meeting of trade officials; FX rates on agenda

• Powell says Fed remains in wait-and-see mode, faces tough scenario

• Says larger-than-expected tariffs may mean higher inflation, slower growth

• Risk aversion, lower US yields weigh; 141.65 loss opens 140.45, 18 Sep low

• Resistance 142.60-70, 143.00; Japan trade data due Thursday
Who is hit hardest by proposed US tariffs?:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD traded 0.6391 overnight, pushing (but not breaking) key resistance

• 0.6390 level pre-dates the tariff-day rout, stop losses accumulated above

• Fed's Powell cautious on inflation, very aware of U.S. stagflation risks

• AUD receiving support amid questions over long-standing strong USD policy

• AU employment data 0130 GMT Thur, Reuters poll consensus +40.0k jobs

• Trade war developments remain critical; AUD likely to extend rally

• Overnight range 0.6343-91, support 0.6180 0.5910, resistance 0.6390
AUD 4hr Chart

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)