• AUD/USD down 0.2% in Asia as risk rally pauses, stocks drop

• Wall Street futures pare gains, Nikkei -1.2% as traders mull Fed rate path

• AUD likely to remain supported on dips as Fed rate hike bets wane

• Last week's soft U.S. jobs data will continue to weigh on USD

• AUD recovery from 200-day MA currently at 0.6869 technically positive

• Interim supports at 0.6910-15, 0.6885-90; resistance 0.6950, 0.6975-80

• Asia range 0.69225-0.69465
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/SGD edging higher, in line with pop higher in USD/JPY and DXY

• Pair last at 1.2923-28, traded amid 1.2913-25 range so far

• Nearby resistance at 1.2930, break risks squeeze to 1.2950

• USD/JPY last at 161.80-85 vs 161.32 early low, bullish bias intact

• Intervention risk may see setback but unable to reverse uptrend

• Hedging related interests continue to underpin

• DXY last at 100.97, up from 100.84 early Asian low
SGD

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• GBP/USD wilts to 1.3354 after opening 1.3369; well-capped

• Bollinger uptrend channel rejected two rally attempts Thur-Fri

• Just above it, 200 and 100 DMA converge around 1.3400 barrier

• Additionally, Ichimoku cloud reinforces psychological barrier

• Barring a strong negative-USD catalyst, GBP/USD may recoil

• Consolidation toward 21 DMA 1.3303 appears likely ahead
GBP


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY up 0.1% in Asia after closing 0.2% higher Fri as dip buyers support

• Speculators boldened by absence of Tokyo intervention but remain wary

• BOJ's slow rate hikes, Japan fiscal concerns counter intervention fears

• Japan's government blueprint nudges BOJ to fuel demand, clouding rates path

• Japan outlined large spending plans in its latest policy blueprint last week

• Waning Fed rate hike bets likely to cap rallies

• Resistance 161.65-70, 161.95-162.00, support 161.00-10, 160.50-60

• Friday range 160.485-161.525, Asia 161.35-161.58
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD reverts to 1.1435 after Mon blip up to 1.1446; capped

• Steering away from 21 DMA resistance 1.1468 again

• That short-term chart barrier has previously deflected rallies

• Bollinger downtrend channel at 1.1387 beckons to short-sellers

• EUR/USD weakness persists despite US NFP miss denting Fed hike odds

• Germany budget proposes huge increase in borrowing
EUR


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD to stay bid on dips after closing 0.25% higher on Friday

• Buoyed by repricing of Fed rate hike bets after soft U.S. jobs data

• Supported by risk rally on waning global rate hike expectations

• Lower energy prices, easing inflation fears boost risk appetite

• MSCI gauge of global stocks up 0.4% Fri, Wall Street futures advance

• Europe's STOXX 600 climb 0.6% to another record high

• AUD recovery from 200-day MA currently at 0.6869 technically positive

• Interim supports at 0.6910-15, 0.6885-90; resistance 0.6950, 0.6975-80

• Friday range 0.6911-0.6949; Monday Asia range 0.6940-0.69465
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Gold sees sharp rebound post softer U.S. payrolls, rates repricing driving the move

• Precious metals tracking Fed hike expectations closely, dovish shift providing a tailwind

• Unwind of Warsh-driven hawkish sell-off opens path back toward $4370–80

• Near-term, $4300–4400 marks first meaningful resistance zone; expect supply to build

• Bullish bias holds while above $3940–60, break below would likely invalidate dip-buying setup
gold chart


gold vs Fed july pricing


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

(Repeats with no changes)

July 3 (Reuters) -

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Friday July 3

• EUR/USD: 1.1325-35 (960M), 1.1340-50 (943M), 1.1370-75 (2.7BLN)

• 1.1380-85 (947M), 1.1390-00 (1.15BLN), 1.1425-30 (897M), 1.1445-50 (967M)

• 1.1460-65 (438M), 1.1475-80 (504M), 1.1500 (2.03BLN), 1.1525 (298M)

• 1.1550 (355M), 1.1600 (2.02BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY price action remains skittish, keeping markets alert to intervention risks

• Spot hit an intra-day low of 160.48, but volume is well below those seen during prior interventions

• JP FinMin issues fresh verbal warning, notes close coordination with U.S. on forex, even during U.S. holiday

• Expect traders to stay cautious on the long side given asymmetric downside risk from possible intervention

• Should keep near-term asymmetrical skew leaning towards a sharper corrective move

• A coordinated intervention with the U.S. would materially increase impact versus unilateral MoF action

• Initial support sits at 159.63–160.01 (55DMA cluster)

• In a credible intervention scenario, downside could extend toward 156.50-157.00, aligning with the 200DMA zone
USD/JPY 15 min


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• EUR edging higher but still capped ahead of 1.1472 (post-NFP high)

• Market reluctant to chase topside - softer payrolls insufficient to sustain upside momentum

• Latest uptick not corroborated by EU–US rate spreads given no meaningful compression

• Sintra takeaways: growing ECB faction comfortable with holding rates steady

• Recent downside inflation surprises also raise the bar for any additional ECB tightening

• Macro backdrop remains a modest headwind for EUR

• Resistance: 1.1500, then 1.1580 (pre-Fed level)

• Support: 1.1350–60, with a deeper cushion at 1.1300–20
eu vs spreads


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• AUD/USD rises to 0.6949 as global stock gains buoy risk-sensitive AUD

• 0.6949 is the highest level since June 23 (0.7003 was the high that day)

• Asian stocks climb; Nikkei up 1.47%. Germany's Dax hits record high

• 0.6911 was Asia low. 0.6943 was Thursday high, after USD fell on NFP data

• CFTC data Monday to show if net AUD short rose again in week to June 30

• Australia flags risk to iron ore price from China state buyer

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Some speculation of possible BOJ rate checks but still seen unlikely

• USD/JPY slump to 160.49 more likely on market nervousness over possibility

• Asia retracement high early 161.52 EBS, USD/JPY heavy and off since

• Thin conditions on US holiday seen by many as perfect timing for FX action

• Of course this on assumption Japan's MOF wants USD lower, punish speculators

• As was case yesterday, sales again more likely on algos, long liquidation

• Could be foreign investors hedging Japan stock buys taking off hedges too

• Nikkei off earlier today to 67,609.49 before bouncing to 69,788.03

• Nikkei closed TSE trading today at 69,744.07

• Market likely to remain nervous into London/European trading

• Related comment , also ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


Nikkei 225 daily:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/CNH slides to 6.7812, taking a peek at 61.8% Fibo support

• Breaks 21 DMA support 6.7839 which previously prompted rebounds

• If Fibo floor at 6.7790 cracks, more room till next one at 6.7680

• Fresh weakness appears as USD/JPY drops below 161.00

• Heading into weekend, JPY intervention fears are on the rise

• Japan FX officials might capitalize on thin US holiday liquidity
CNH


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Friday July 3

• EUR/USD: 1.1325-35 (960M), 1.1340-50 (943M), 1.1370-75 (2.7BLN)

• 1.1380-85 (947M), 1.1390-00 (1.15BLN), 1.1425-30 (897M), 1.1445-50 (967M)

• 1.1460-65 (438M), 1.1475-80 (504M), 1.1500 (2.03BLN), 1.1525 (298M)

• 1.1550 (355M), 1.1600 (2.02BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY choppy in early Asia trading, day's range of 160.92-161.52 EBS then

• Market has since settled with pair holding above 160.91 daily Ichimoku kijun

• Kijun briefly pierced to downside overnight on move to 160.64

• Next support 160.48 low June 18, then daily lows to 159.51 June 11

• Option expiries today include 160.00 $1.3, 160.50 $1.2 and 161.50 $1.4 bln

• Whether Japan's MOF intervenes tonight maybe key to USD/JPY from here

• US holiday today, thin conditions providing MOF with great opportunity

• This especially if MOF is really out to punish speculators

• Some JPY short-covering seen yesterday but market still seen very short yen

• Weak US jobs data, fading Fed rate hike expectations helped yen but enough?

• No hints from MOF of action however, only usual mantra from FinMin Katayama

• JPY crosses heavy in Asia, dragged lower by USD/JPY yesterday

• EUR/JPY 184.25-41 EBS, back below descending 200-HMA at 184.52

• Also below 100-DMA at 184.67, 184.95-99 daily Ichimoku cloud

• CHF/JPY 200.24-85, above 200.07 daily Ichi tenkan but below 201.03-87 cloud

• Also below 200.76-79 hourly Ichimoku cloud now but could break back above

• GBP/JPY more buoyant than other crosses, 214.66-215.44, downside limited

• Off 216.05 high yesterday but support from 214.19/25 daily kijun/tenkan

• Ensconced for now in 215.19-64 ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud

• AUD/JPY up some too from 111.11 low yesterday, Asia 111.24-82

• Still generally heavy, holding mostly below 111.73-113.31 daily Ichi cloud

• Also below 111.92-112.03 soon to descend hourly Ichimoku cloud

• NZD/JPY 91.64-92.05, up some from 91.53 low yesterday, 91.00 June 26

• Still well below 93.02-64 daily Ichi cloud but into 91.92-92.22 hourly cloud

• Fate of JPY crosses seen dependent on USD/JPY moves, whether MOF intervenes

• Related comment , also , on Japan data

• On MOF-speak , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


GBP/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD up 0.15% in Asia as dip buyers take advantage of early weakness

• Supported by repricing of Fed rate hike bets after soft U.S. jobs data

• Probability of a September hike falls to 54% from 67% before the data

• Bulls regain confidence after recovery from 200-day MA at 0.6865

• Interim support at 0.6885-90, resistance 0.6945-50, 0.6980

• Asia range 0.6911-0.6935
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold miners rise as much as 5.3%, gaining their most since June 15

• Bullion rose more than 2% overnight after weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data reduced expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year [GOL/]

• Sector heavyweight Evolution Mining adds 4.5% and Northern Star Resources gains 6.8%

• YTD, sub-index down over 14%

(Reporting by Shruti Agarwal in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY saw a big slump late Asia yesterday, thoughts of BOJ rate checks

• Seems more a matter of long liquidation on Japan intervention threat

• Move fuelled by view US payrolls would be weak, MOF action post-data release

• US payrolls indeed proved to be weak, left USD/JPY lower but no FX action

• From 162.84 Wednesday and earlier Asia high yesterday of 162.60 to 160.90

• Post-payrolls saw low of 160.64 EBS in NY, Asia so far today 161.13-47

• Up some with market confirmation of no Japanese FX action yet

• Demand still strong on dips/falls from Japanese importers, retail/NISA flows

• Less foreign Japan investment currency hedges with Nikkei well off highs

• Support from area of daily Ichimoku kijun at 160.91 despite push below

• Resistance from hourly Ichi kijun at 161.62, 200/100-HMAs at 161.87/162.08

• Large option expiries to contain USD/JPY especially given US holiday?

• At 160.00 $1.3 bln, 160.50 $1.2 bln, some 161.00-15, 161.50 $1.4 mln

• Related comments , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Japan's MOF , , US payrolls
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD to stay supported on dips in Asia after closing 0.4% higher Thu

• Boosted by weak U.S. jobs growth, receding Fed rate hike bets

• September Fed rate hike chances drop to 55% from 67% ahead of data

• AUD rally capped by AUD/JPY sales as yen gains on intervention fears

• Recovery from 200-day MA at 0.6865 hints of base formation

• Interim support at 0.6885-90, resistance 0.6945-50, 0.6980

• Thursday range 0.68845-0.6943
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1410, the pair fell to 1.1396 in early action, buyers then emerged

• Bulls charged ahead after the downbeat US June employment report

• USD was sold, US yields fell & US-DE spreads

tightened

• USD/CNH drop to 6.7840, rallies in gold, silver & equities helped EUR/USD hit 1.1472

• The pair made an 8-session high then pulled back as the USD firmed & risk softened

• EUR/USD dipped below 1.1440 in NY's after but still traded up +0.52% late in the day

• Rally above the 10-DMA and rising RSIs are bullish technical signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6895, the pair fell towards 0.68858 early, buyers then emerged

• Downside surprise to US June jobs report weighed down USD, US yields

• Gold, silver, copper & equities rallied while USD/CNH fell to 6.7840

• AUD/USD spiked up, rallied above the 10-DMA, hit a 7-session high of 0.6943

• Stocks, gold, silver then gave back some gains & the USD firmed up a bit

• AUD/USD pulled back from the high, neared 0.6925 late, was up +0.41%

• Rising daily, monthly RSIs & move above the 10-DMA give bulls some comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon +0.64% at 1.3355; Thursday range 1.3385-1.3276

• Pair bolstered by early USD/JPY selling, gains added to after soft U.S. payroll data

• Soft payroll data supports less-hawkish Fed policy path, prods likely GBP short unwind

• LSEG's IRPR indicates 65% odds for Sept hike, +31bp by Dec FOMC; BoE +17bp by Dec MPC

• UK political, fiscal concern have tempered considerably, remove headwind for GBP gains

• GBP$ res 1.3385 post -NFP high, 1.3400 psychological lvl/200-DMA, 1.3449 Jun 17 high

• Supt 1.3297 Early NorAm pullback low, 1.3262 daily conversion line, 1.3213 June 30 low

GBP$ Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research revises down its AUD/USD forecasts and now targets the pair at 0.69 in Q3 and Q4.

"The AUD is losing its terms-of-trade and interest rate advantages faster than we expected. The ceasefire between the US and Iran is leading to a quick retreat in global energy prices weakening the prices for Australia’s LNG and coal exports. China’s soft economic growth is leading to a further retreat in iron ore prices. The threat of higher US rates is leading to weaker gold prices. These factors have led to a plunge in Australia’s commodity terms of trade back close to pre-US-Iran war levels and the AUD is yet to catch up ," CACIB notes.

"Of course, there still could be a resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, but it is likely that the positive effect on the AUD from the spike in energy prices would be more than offset by the negative effect from the rise in risk aversion, in our view," CACIB adds.

• USD/CAD trades heavy post-payrolls, broad USD offered tone

• Spot printed 1.4151 intraday low before stabilising, 1.4140 remains key near-term support

• Failure to break cleanly lower keeps pair in consolidation mode near-term

• Decisive move through 1.4140 opens 1.4000 (pre-Fed level), then 1.3930–1.3967 support zone

• U.S. shifts to annual USMCA review, tail risk of exit removed, but policy uncertainty is elevated

• Initial resistance at 1.4250. Closing above would negate pullback risk
USDCAD hourly


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))