If EUR/USD closes over 1.1900, it could reach 1.25
EUR/USD has not closed over the 100-month moving average, now 1.1885, since 2014.
The last major rally, in 2017, failed close to the 100-MMA and the last break below it occurred shortly after the European Central Bank began the cycle of easing that has determined monetary policy since.
The 100-MMA may be both a major technical level and a major psychological swing point.
In 2017-18, planned tightening helped to choke the economy and EUR/USD.
This year, easing is supporting recovery and may propel EUR/USD above a level that could lead to much bigger rise.
When the 100-MMA capped the last major EUR/USD rally, it was 1.2546.
The peak of that rally in February 2018 was 1.2556, but EUR/USD closed 1.2195.
A huge fibo lies close by at 1.2598, a 61.8% retracement of the drop from 1.3995 in 2014.
The 50% retracement is 1.2167.
Lack of option cover over 1.2000, which has the equivalent risk of a short squeeze, significantly heightens upside risk.
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