Goldman Sachs on inflation outlook in the US and major economies.

"Core inflation has mostly surprised to the downside in major economies since the start of the war in Iran. But September and October inflation data in the US surprised to the upside, providing a reminder that the inflation pressures from higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions remain relevant. Indeed, global import prices and producer prices have risen and broadened in recent months, indicating increases in upstream price pressures," GS notes.

"Consensus forecasts have historically been somewhat conservative in incorporating upstream price changes. The historical relationship between such shocks and monthly inflation surprises implies 0.1–0.2pp cumulative upside to consensus projections over the next 9 months. These patterns highlight that risks around near-term inflation news are skewed toward upside surprises. If realized, such surprises could prompt modest further tightening from major central banks in early 2027," GS adds.