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Aug 02 - 10:55 AM

TD Securities: Predicting a 25bps Hike from the BoE, Though It's a Close Call

By eFXdata  —  Aug 02 - 09:30 AM

TD Securities delves into their predictions for the imminent Bank of England (BoE) meeting, suggesting a potential interest rate hike. The decision's complexity arises from various factors that could influence the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) stance.

Key Points:

  1. Data-Driven Decision: The incoming economic data and relevant projections seem to tilt towards a 25 basis points (bps) hike. The numbers appear to justify a slight tightening of monetary policy.

  2. Alternative Possibility: While the data supports a 25bps hike, the MPC might be inclined to consider a more aggressive 50bps hike. This might be paired with a dovish outlook, allowing the MPC to accelerate their trajectory towards the terminal rate. Such a move would represent a more aggressive stance, intending to get ahead of potential inflationary pressures.

  3. Lack of Signalling: Adding to the complexity of the decision is the fact that the MPC has been relatively silent in recent weeks. This lack of signalling means that external observers are left to deduce the committee's intentions largely from available data and past behaviors.

  4. TD's Prediction: Given the balance of factors, TD Securities believes that a 25bps hike is the most probable outcome. However, they emphasize the narrow margin of certainty, highlighting that the decision could indeed go either way.


TD Securities articulates their expectations for the upcoming BoE meeting, suggesting a potential 25bps rate hike. While the current data might justify this move, the possibility of a larger 50bps hike, combined with a dovish stance, is not entirely off the table. The MPC's silence in recent times adds to the unpredictability of the decision. While TD leans towards a 25bps hike, they stress that it's a tight race between the two potential outcomes.

TD Bank Research/Market Commentary


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