Bank of America's analysis of currency values reveals that after its mid-year rally, the U.S. dollar has tipped into overvaluation territory relative to a basket of major currencies, with implications for future foreign exchange dynamics.
USD Valuation Analysis: Comparative projections of bilateral spot rates versus the U.S. dollar indicate a broad overvaluation of the USD, notably since its July rally.
Relative Overvaluation Extents: Among G10 currencies, the AUD is facing the most significant undervaluation against the USD, while the CHF is least undervalued.
Alignment with Fundamental Outlooks: These observations are consistent with Bank of America's existing forecasts for G10 currencies.
Reversion Factors: After the USD hit its lowest in 2023 by mid-July, subsequent appreciation has shifted reversion indicators from neutral to suggesting a bearish trend for the USD once more.
Conclusion: Bank of America's recent findings suggest that the U.S. dollar's strong performance has pushed it into an overvalued position against major currencies, particularly against the Australian dollar. This overvaluation aligns with broader forecasts that had anticipated a possible reversal after significant currency movements this year. As a result, the bank anticipates that reversion dynamics could become increasingly bearish for the USD, signaling potential upcoming adjustments in the forex markets.