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Aug 02 - 05:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-Those Hedging EUR/USD Should Focus On A Slow Rise

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Aug 02 - 03:50 AM

EUR/USD rose slowly this year with the early July rush to 1.1276, an anomaly quickly followed by a big correction that will likely see the pair move into a higher range from the 1.05-1.10 that held until June.

Option vols are suppressed and those hedging EUR/USD might focus on shift toward a range developing around 1.08-1.13.

Any drop below the 200-DMA at 1.0735 would challenge bullish conviction and threaten the large number of traders currently betting on a bigger rise.
Bullish speculation is one of the main restraints on the pair rising and is a big reason why moves are happening slowly.

One of the main factors supporting the rally is the strong will to gamble in evidence across financial markets - typified by equities.
While stocks are rising the will to gamble and hold bigger bets like that on EUR/USD rising may also hold.

The reduction of Switzerland's huge FX reserve is also suppressing volatility, with the central bank there selling huge amounts of euros and dollars, helping to contain EUR/USD and resulting in lower volatility regardless of the pair rising.

One-month EUR/USD vol is just 7.0, so moves in any direction are not likely to happen too quickly.
That may encourage investors to buck current speculation to sell EUR/USD strength and earn a fairly attractive interest rate return.
The EUR/USD carry trade is to be short, and may remain so for a long time.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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