ANZ Research discusses AUD outlook and maintains a bearish bias targeting a move towards 0.65 by year-end.
"Given the tepid growth environment, the path for the cyclical currencies remains challenged, and the AUD is no exception. It is getting harder to find the chain of events that would spark a coordinated global growth recovery, the upside case for the AUD. Offsetting some of the pessimism, the AUD now sits on the ‘cheap’ side of fair value, US rate differentials are likely to stop deteriorating and Australia may shortly publish its first current account surplus since 1975 (and if it doesn’t quite get there, it will be very close)," ANZ notes.
"The bottom line is that any improvement in AUD rate dynamics on the back of an extension in the bond rally is likely to occur in an environment of heightened uncertainty. This is the more important consideration and consistent with our forecast of the AUD closer to 0.65," ANZ adds.