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Danske Research discusses USD/JPY outlook.
"While the joint US-Japan intervention, where the US sold EUR to buy the JPY, supporting the JPY and putting downward pressure on USD/JPY, was remarkable in its size and coordination, it generated limited follow-through beyond the initial move, reinforcing that sustained JPY strength is unlikely without a meaningful repricing lower in US yields. History shows that intervention alone rarely changes the underlying trend. Unless supported by weaker US data, lower US yields, a more hawkish BoJ, lower oil prices or meaningful Japanese asset repatriation, investors are likely to fade JPY strength," Danske notes.
"Accordingly, while we remain structurally bearish on USD/JPY over the medium term, we see scope for tactical upside over the next 1-3M, supported by resilient US data, a relatively hawkish Fed and oil prices that are likely to remain elevated," Danske adds.