March 19 (Reuters) - EUR/USD fell away from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1214-1.0125 decline Wednesday and the pair may extend its slide if the Fed does not cooperate with market expectations for future rate cuts. Though no move by the U.S. central bank is anticipated on Wednesday, SOFR futures prices indicate investors expect at total of 75bps of cuts from the Fed in 2025 . That contrasts with the Fed's last Summary of Economic Projections, which indicated only two cuts would be made this year. If Wednesday's dot plot sticks to only two cuts, EUR/USD could fall sharply as U.S. yields would be expected to rally, pushing German-U.S. spreads and terminal rate spreads for the Fed and ECB wider, thus increasing the dollar's yield advantage over the euro. Should Fed Chair Powell's presser focus more on inflation risk from President Donald Trump's trade and tariff policies instead of slowing economic growth, the U.S. rate complex and dollar might also rally significantly.

EUR/USD bears could then take control and erase a good portion of the pair's rally off February's monthly low. A move below the 200-DMA and towards key support in the 1.0550-1.0600 zone could then be on the cards.
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(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)