• USD/JPY volatile in Asia this morning, to 157.27 EBS early before bouncing

• High so far 158.00, good offering interest still eyed in area

• Massive $4.2 bln in option expiries today at 158.00 helping to cap spot

• Japanese exporter likely behind some of the offers, foreign players too

• Adding to JPY longs on the USD/JPY bounce?

• IMM CTA yen longs double to 101,591 contracts as of Oct 27

• Buying of USD/JPY maybe on Nikkei basing at 56,745.81 after early sales

• Some bargain hunting by foreign players? Fresh currency hedges put on?

• Nikkei has since bounced, around 57,628 now, still -5.6% on day

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


Nikkei 225 hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Fri, but still 1.2% below Thur 0.7024 high on soured sentiment

• Markets wary of broad risk-off contagion stemming from AI trade rout

• AUD ultimately targets 0.6865 support, break would open door for bigger move

• National Australia Bank's Irvine warns on growing risk of AU recession

• Hauser says public confidence in RBA's ability to counter inflation at risk

• U.S. Oct non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +65k (prior +29k)

• Range Asia 0.69245-42 support 0.6865 0.6835, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Repercussions from Wall Street plunge, yen bid on presumed haven demand

• USD/JPY from 158.51 to 157.55 yesterday, Asia so far today 157.81 to 157.27

• Heading for 157.17-158.44 daily Ichimoku cloud base, 156.96 EBS low Oct 30?

• Resistance in place from flattening 200-HMA up at 157.89, then at 158.00

• Japanese exporters likely in sell-rally mode alongside foreign investors

• Nikkei likely down with Wall Street too, currency hedges to be taken off?

• Massive $4.2 bln in option expiries today at 158.00 strike, to help cap

• Plenty on 157 too - between 157.35-60 $2.1 bln, gravitational pull?

• Just below between 157.05-30 $744 mln, at 157.00 $1.7 bln, more on 156

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials recently narrowing, continuation?

• Two-year rate differentials currently @269 bps, 10s @207 bps

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , on Fed-speak

• US markets , , ,

• Japan news , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


NASDAQ Index:


Nikkei 225:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -1.1% from Thur 0.5658 high as sentiment sours post-U.S. election

• Nasdaq slides 4.3% as AI spending & regulatory concerns weigh heavily

• NZ's major parties (National & Labour) neck-and-neck in pre-election polls

• Futures pricing implies 60.2% chance of Dec RBNZ hike, down from 78.2% Tue

• NZD break below Oct 14 0.5566 low back on the radar as malaise resumes

• U.S. Oct non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +65k (prior +29k)

• Range NZ 0.55939-0.5613, support 0.5566 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


NZD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -1.1% from Thur 0.7024 high as U.S. equities tank, Nasdaq -4.5%

• AI spending & regulatory concerns spark broader fire sale, copper -1.3%

• Hauser warns public confidence in RBA's ability to counter inflation at risk

• AUD pushing lower hourly Bollinger band, may slow pace of downside extension

• Pair targeting 0.6865 support zone, break below opens gate for bigger move

• U.S. Oct non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +65k (prior +29k)

• Overnight range 0.6937-0.7024 support 0.6865 0.6835, resistance 0.7140
AUD 21/55/100-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ steady in NorAm afternoon, -0.02% at 1.3465; NorAm range 1.3486-1.3445

• Pair had tested resistance by 1.35 in early Europe trade before moving lower

• BoE expected 25bp hike had little effect on price, initial move lower faded

• Vote more hawkish than expected, Mann sought 50bp hike, Rtrs f/c was for 2 holds

• Going forward BoE yield advantage over Fed likely keeps GBP$ moving higher

• Risk (AI/tech) on backfoot stirs haven move into USTs, lower yields sap USD strength

• GBP$ supt 1.3445 post-BoE Thursday low, 1.3423 flat 200-DMA, 1.3341 daily cloud base

• Res 1.3503 Wednesday high, 1.3566 daily high Sept 9, 1.3675 daily high Aug 21

GBP Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Danske Research changes its BoE rate call.

"The BoE raised Bank Rate by 25bp to 4.00%. Vote split 8-1, with Mann preferring a 50bp hike—meaning all members supported tightening. Inflation is expected to reach around 5% by mid-2027. Despite limited evidence of second-round effects, the BoE sees enough price pressure to act,:" Danske notes.

"We change our call and add two further 25bp hikes in February and April, taking Bank Rate to 4.50%, unless a lasting resolution to the conflict is reached," Danske adds.

• NY opened near 0.7015 after AUD/UD rallied to 0.7024 overnight

• The pair fell early as investors sought safe assets due to risk-off sentiment

• Stocks, AUD/JPY fell while US Treasury securities rallied; reinforced bid for safety

• AUD/USD hit a 13-session low of 0.6945, neared 0.6955 late, was down -0.76%

• Falling RSIs, pair's hold below 10- & 21-DMAs are bearish tech signals

• US October payroll report is a key risk in NY for Friday
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research previews the NZ elections on Nov-7.

"New Zealand’s 7 November election appears too close to call. Our Monte Carlo simulations of recent polling lean slightly towards a Labour-led outcome, while prediction markets slightly favour a continuation of the current National-led government. Polling and prediction markets suggest neither major party will achieve a standalone majority, so coalition and confidence-and-supply negotiations will be decisive. As a result, minor parties will likely have greater influence over the policy mix of any future government," GS notes.

"In the very near term, our base case is that NZ’s political backdrop is neutral for the RBNZ. With the vote so close, government formation could take several weeks, and a new government is unlikely to be formed until after the RBNZ’s 9 December meeting," GS adds.

• Ether rallied to 2442.64 overnight, sellers emerged and it then turned lower

• It fell despite sharp gains in US dollar alternatives gold and silver

• Broad-based USD buying, firm US yields weighed on Ether

• Ether fell back below the 38.2% Fibo of the 2178.34-2805.45 rally

• That is the second time in as many days Ether failed to hold above that Fibo

• A daily inverted hammer formed and daily RSI turned downward

• Ether may need to consolidate recent gains if rally off Oct. 30 low is to resume
eth

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews the US October jobs report due on Friday.

"This month, we look for headline NFP to rise by +65k, offering a middle ground in firming from +29k in September but still coming in below +133k in August. On balance, we see this as a solid pace in the current environment in which the breakeven has dropped sharply due to shifts in immigration policy, especially as the three-month moving average would bump up to +76k from +51k if our forecast is on track, pending revisions," CACIB notes.

"With decent job gains expected on the month, we project an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%, slightly up from the July/August trough but still a historically low level. We expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% MoM, firming from just 0.1% MoM in September, though base effects would still take the YoY pace down to 2.9% from 3.0%," CACIB adds.

Citi on the scope of JPY intervention after the US midterm elections.

"We expect a clear downtrend in the USDJPY to emerge over the long term now that US midterm elections are over, but the risk of JPY weakness will continue to smolder in the short to medium term. In the near term, the key will be the performance of US equities after the elections and the impact on geopolitical risk and crude prices via the situation in Iran,"Citi notes.

"Crude prices are also an important factor in the economic policy outlined by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and we do not expect any change in Japanese authorities' ongoing efforts to defend the JPY. We expect the next round of intervention to buy the JPY if the USDJPY tests ¥160/$, with the authorities likely to try to push the pair below ¥155/$," Citi adds.

• Gold is back above $4100 on the post-midterms squeeze and testing trendline resistance

• The UST rally is helping, with the 10-year below 4.90%

• Narrative building that slower AI build-outs ease fears of AI crowding out UST demand

• Resistance: $4203 (100DMA), then $4400

• With gold up over 5% in the last two sessions, we could start to see some consolidation in the short run

• US payrolls are the next event risk in focus
Gold in 2026

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• US-listed gold miners rise premarket as gold prices touch two-week high

• Spot gold rises 1.9% to $4,136.60 per ounce, touching its highest since October 22 [GOL/]

• Gold prices extend post-US midterm election rally as US dollar and Treasury yields weaken, while a sharp drop in oil prices eases inflation concerns

• US-listed shares of South African miners Gold Fields , AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold

gain between 1.8% and 6.3%

• US-listed shares of Canadian miner Kinross Gold gains 2.3%, while Agnico Eagle Mines up 2.6%

• Newmont and Barrick Mining , among the biggest US-listed gold miners by market capitalization, up 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively

**Diversified precious-metals miner Sibanye Stillwater

advances 5.1%

• SPDR Gold Shares ETF up 1.7%

(Reporting by Jayasree Prabhu)

• EUR/USD -0.05%, USD/JPY -0.02%, GBP/USD -0.1%, AUD/USD 0.14%

• S&P E-minis 0.17%, DAX 0.85%, Nikkei 225 -1.79%, FTSE 0.8%

• EUR/USD resistance proving remarkably resilient

• BOJ minutes lift yen, but cloud cushions USD/JPY's fall

• GBP/USD respects seven-week peak before expected BoE hike

• AUD/USD maintains 0.70 handle as RBA's Hauser digested

• Option expiries . US Open

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Please return to GLOBAL-FXBuzz-Edit

EUR/USD risk reversals show options traders still aren't paying a premium for topside strikes over downside, even as the premium for downside protection shrinks. G10 FX implied volatility is falling and the EUR/USD curve is edging towards a return to long-term lows. The ongoing lack of realised volatility and diminished event risk are weighing on premiums.

Risk reversals show a smaller premium for EUR puts over calls across all maturities. That is a clear shift, but there's no rush to flip this directional risk premium to topside strikes. The benchmark 1-month risk reversal has settled at 0.2 in favour of EUR puts, down from 0.6 in mid-October and 1.6 in early October. The contract hasn't traded with a topside strike premium since a brief foray in late August. Options buyers have cut what they pay for downside protection, but they haven't yet started paying a premium for upside over downside protection.

Further out, the picture is more cautious. Longer-dated risk reversals hold a higher premium for EUR puts over calls, which shows a greater perceived risk of EUR losses than gains. The April-May 2027 French elections are seen as a risk to the EUR, and they are keeping a bid under downside strikes from the 6-month expiry.

For now, that leaves the short end closer to neutral and the longer end still leaning towards downside protection. A topside premium at the 1-month point would be the first sign that sentiment is turning.

Related comment - FX Options see little NFP risk for the USD
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals-


EUR/USD FXO implied volatility

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 27.9 pip range thus far Thursday; 1.3501 is intra-day high

• 1.3501 is 1.5 pips shy of Wednesday's seven-week high

• Rise to Wednesday high was fuelled by USD selling on midterm blue wave

• Retreat from Wednesday high based 8 pips shy of 1.3447 (Monday high)

• 1.3397-1.3432 was range on Tuesday (when America voted)

• Vance repudiates Iran war. BoE rate hike to 4% expected at 1200 GMT

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Markets pricing in more than 80% chance of Fed hike in December

• BOJ minutes reinforce expectations for further rate hikes

• Sterling near seven-week high before Bank of England decision

(Adds Treasuries in headline and paragraphs 1, 7, latest prices)

By Rocky Swift

TOKYO, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The dollar slid to the lowest in more than a month on Thursday in the aftermath of an overwhelming victory by Democrats in US midterm elections, which sent oil prices and Treasury yields lower.

The yen gained after minutes from the Bank of Japan's September meeting reinforced bets for further interest-rate hikes, while sterling rose toward a seven-week high ahead of a Bank of England policy decision, at which another rate increase was expected.

Democrats swept to majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, spurring gains in US Treasuries and global equities, though doubts remained about whether the new Congress would be as accommodating to the AI sector.

The market reaction, particularly the sharp drop in oil prices, reflected expectations that President Donald Trump will now be unable to conduct an aggressive agenda, including the US-Israeli war on Iran or trade tariffs, said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank.

"We need to be mindful that currency and market movements in general may not necessarily reflect a sort of medium-term dynamic, but rather positioning and maybe even overreaction to the results of the midterms," Catril said. "What seems to be a bit clearer is that the move lower in oil prices is very helpful for risk sentiment, as well as the move lower in yields."

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.22% to 101.25, extending a 0.34% slide on Wednesday and touching its lowest level since September 30. The euro climbed 0.29% to $1.1261, while the yen strengthened 0.27% to 157.95 per dollar.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year Treasury notes fell 4.5 basis points to 4.847%, the lowest since September 10.

Despite the political shift in the US, expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path remained largely intact. Markets are pricing in an 80.7% chance of a rate increase of at least 25 basis points from the Fed at its December meeting, according to CME FedWatch, up from 77.4% in the prior session.

Key data inputs for Fed policymakers will be labour market indicators, including initial jobless claims on Thursday and non-farm payrolls on Friday. They come on the heels of the ADP report on Wednesday showing that private payrolls rose by more than expected in October.

"The tight growth in supply of the labour market I think means that the unemployment rate is going to remain low, and therefore consumption growth should remain healthy in the United States," Brian Martin, head of G3 economics at ANZ, said on a podcast. "The midterm elections themselves aren't likely to meaningfully change that path of tightening that we had expected."

Sterling added 0.12% to $1.349, up for a seventh straight session and poised for its highest close since September 14. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates to contend with inflation pressure from soaring energy costs, although it may push back against investor bets that several more increases will follow next year.

The Bank of Japan meeting minutes from September, when policymakers raised rates to a 31-year high of 1.25%, underscored expectations for further tightening, with some board members signalling a chance of faster increases. Markets now widely expect the BOJ's next hike to come in December.

The Australian dollar edged up 0.07% to $0.7009, while New Zealand's kiwi dollar surged 0.41% to $0.5641.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 0.22% to $80,357.66, and ether rose 0.11% to $2,419.79.

(Reporting by Rocky Swift; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Thomas Derpinghaus and William Mallard)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/15:00 GMT on Thursday November 5

• EUR/USD: 1.1195 (905M), 1.1200 (4.7BLN), 1.1205-15 (2.7BLN), 1.1220-30 (3.4BLN), 1.1235-45 (1.3BLN)

• 1.1250 (2.7BLN), 1.1260-65 (1BLN), 1.1270-75 (3.3BLN), 1.1300 (1.2BLN), 1.1350-55 (4BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8080 (388M), 0.8190-0.8200 (410M), 0.8225-30 (830M)

• EUR/CHF: 0.9150 (206M), 0.9200-10 (242M), 0.9225 (305M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3400 (1.1BLN), 1.3450 (200M), 1.3485 (282M), 1.3535-45 (383M), 1.3570 (664M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8350 (330M), 0.8400 (609M). AUD/NZD: 1.2430 (200M), 1.2450 (350M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6950 (809M), 0.6960-65 (565M), 0.7000 (605M), 0.7050 (210M), 0.7070 (602M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3905-10 (746M), 1.3995 (206M). EUR/JPY: 176.75 (255M), 177.00 (498M)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (2.3BLN), 157.45-50 (771M), 157.70 (690M), 158.00 (756M), 158.25-30 (777M)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australian Gold and Copper rise as much as 7.2% to A$0.113, hitting their highest level since October 28

• Diversified miner reports shallow high-grade gold results from reverse circulation drilling within its Evergreen prospect in New South Wales

• Co says results extend shallow oxide gold mineralisation identified in earlier drilling

• Adds assay results have been received from nine of 21 reverse circulation holes, with results from 12 more holes pending

• More than 340,000 shares change hands, about 2.2x the 30-day average

• YTD, stock down 51.1%

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Thur as risk sentiment uplift extends into Asia trading

• Gold +1.7% as USD & UST yields soften in wake of U.S. election result

• AUD near upper hourly Bollinger band, further topside progress will be slow

• 0.7068 mtd high would be tough to break, but doing so would enliven bulls

• AU trade surplus grew to 2.83 bln in Sep on stronger LNG and metals exports

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking at ANU Canberra Thur

• Range Asia 0.70011-215 support 0.6865 0.6835, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD +0.2% Thur as rising inflation stokes ECB Dec rate hike speculation

• EU inflation hit 3-year high in Oct - inline with consensus at +4.0% y/y

• EU Sep producer prices due Thur, Reuters poll consensus 2.5% m/m, 10.9% y/y

• Democrat's win in U.S. midterm elections lifting risk sentiment short term

• EUR move toward 1.1381 55-DMA possible if positive momentum holds

• 1.1065 17-month low the next target if the pair resumes downtrend

• Range Asia 1.1230-57, support 1.1065 1.0733, resistance 1.1285 1.1710
EUR Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australia's gold stocks climb as much as 9.1%, posting their biggest intraday pct gain since June 15

• Sub-index touches its highest level since October 19

• Gold prices surged more than 3% overnight, as the dollar tumbled after Democrats swept the US midterm elections [GOL/]

• Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources

rise 8.4% and 6%, respectively

• AXGD down 4.8% YTD

(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Thur, still supported by upbeat post-U.S. election sentiment

• AU Sep balance on goods +2.83 bln (poll 810 mln), goods exports +2.3% m/m

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking at ANU Canberra Thur

• AUD may struggle to break above 0.7068 mtd high, sideways drift likely

• WTI flat Thur after outsized-overnight fall on hope for Iran war resolution

• Range Asia 0.70011-12 support 0.6865 0.6835, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)