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May 13 - 07:55 PM

USD/JPY - Clears Key 50% Fibo Hurdle On Fed Survey, But CPI And Sales Are Key

By Randolph Donney  —  May 13 - 02:20 PM
  • USD/JPY rose 0.28% having cleared 156.05, 50% of its 160.245-151.86 plunge

  • So far modest breakout was catalyzed by NY Fed survey's higher inflation

  • Tues's US PPI and Wed's CPI & retail sales are hard data tests for Fed, USD

  • The last new y/y low in CPI was 3.0% in June 2023; April f/c at 3.4% vs 3.5%

  • Fed still favored in futures to cut by Sep, 43bp by year-end

  • BoJ swaps have a 10bp hike in July. 23bp by year-end: up after QE cut Monday

  • JGB yields on slow, but steady rise this year as Fed cut pricing swings

  • Close above 158.28 May 2 high would be bullish and eye 61.8% at 157.04

  • The May 1 high by 158 is the next pivot point if US data are supportive

  • MoF directed intervention possible in a rapid rise toward 2024/1990 peaks

  • If US data prove dovish, props are at 155.50 and by 150

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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