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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Rob Howard  —  Dec 01 - 05:25 AM
  • Cable climbs to 1.2155 as risk-sensitive pound benefits from equity gains

  • See: nL1N32R0LZ. 1.2155 is 200DMA (1.2153 was 15-week high on November 24)

  • Equity gains aided by Powell and news China set to loosen COVID curbs

  • See: nL8N32R04F. 1.1900 was Wednesday's one-week low, before Powell spoke

  • 1.2200 among bull targets if 200DMA vaulted (1.2216 was August 12 high)

  • UK businesses report easing price pressures - BoE survey nL8N32R2BC

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Dec 01 - 03:50 AM
  • Dollar plunges versus yen as Powell says Fed to go slow nL1N32R0BF

  • Japan firms rising capex fuel hopes for smaller GDP contraction nL4N32Q2R4

  • USD/JPY sees a big collapse, on Thursday, dropping from 138.11 to 135.85

  • Some Japanese importer buys but not large, exporters hitting bounces

  • USD/JPY's slump unmasks the major 135.48 Fibo, outlook darkens nL1N32R0F6

  • 135.48 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the 130.40-151.94 (Aug-Oct) EBS rise

  • USD/JPY, EUR/JPY 30-day log correlation above +0.50 = positive relationship

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Dec 01 - 03:10 AM
  • EUR/USD's outlook is mixed, market stuck between a rock and a hard place

  • Long upper shadow on Monday's candle is a sign the upside has been rejected

  • However, the market has since found support ahead of 1.0268 Fibo Wednesday

  • 1.0268 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 0.9528 to 1.0497 (Sept to Nov) rise

  • On balance, we expect gains as fourteen-day momentum remains positive

  • However, watch this reading as it could turn negative in coming sessions

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N32Q0FZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Dec 01 - 02:50 AM
  • Cable tests 1.2118 (Monday's high) after extending north from 1.1900

  • 1.1900 was Wednesday's one-week low, before USD sank on Powell comments

  • Fed Chair was less hawkish than expected nL1N32Q2D1nL1N32Q3IX

  • 1.2126 (Black Friday high) and 1.2153 are resistance levels beyond 1.2118

  • Support points incude 1.2062 (Tuesday's high) and 1.2029 (Ldn am high Weds)

  • UK Nov house prices down 1.4% MM vs minus 0.3% f/c - Nationwide nL8N32R1A5

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Dec 01 - 02:20 AM
  • Daily chart's outlook has darken considerably due to the latest slump

  • Thursday's losses means our 138.80 short met its target at 136.60

  • Fourteen-day momentum is negative, reinforcing the bearish bias

  • Expectation is for losses through a major 135.48 Fibo

  • 135.48 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the 130.40-151.94 (Aug-Oct) EBS rise

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. Prev nL1N32Q0H2

  • EUR/JPY range has been 142.11-143.75, on Thursday, according to EBS prices

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Dec 01 - 12:40 AM
  • AUD/USD powers up to 0.6818 in continuation of Wed rally

  • Wed closing crossed Fibo, activated Bollinger uptrend channel

  • Bollinger band 0.6770 and 61.8% Fibo at 0.6762 to support dips

  • Bulls will aim for next Fibo retracement at 0.6902, then 0.7000

  • Risk-on persists in wake of less hawkish Powell, China news

  • China softens tone on COVID severity, eyes vaccinations nL8N32R04F

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 30 - 10:25 PM

  • +0.15%, with the USD off 0.3% from 5pm NY and resilient risk appetite

  • Trades in the middle of a 1.2056-1.2103 range with heavy flow on D3

  • UK to trial Elon Musk's satellite broadband equipment in remote locations

  • If successful, real progress towards 'levelling up' in the UK nL8N32Q5N1

  • Charts, daily momentum studies flat line, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head higher

  • 21 day Bollinger bands rise - a positive setup near recent range high

  • Initial key resistance at 1.2291, the well tested August high

  • 1.1988 10 DMA is initial major support, then pivotal 1.1700 21 DMA

    For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Nov 30 - 09:50 PM
  • NZD/USD closed above the 200-day MA (0.6289) for first time since April

  • NZD attractive, as RBNZ remains hawkish as other central banks hint at scaling back nL4N32J0KP

  • NZD/USD trending higher with the 5, 10 & 21-day MAs in a bullish alignment

  • Only a break below the 10-day MA (0.6214) would suggest waning momentum

  • The first target is the 61.8 of 2022 high/low at 0.6452

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Nov 30 - 07:45 PM
  • AUD/USD traded to a 10-week high at 0.6814 in upbeat start to Asian session

  • Weaker than expected Q3 Aus Capex ignored as AUD/USD remains above 0.6800 nAZN0SKL2W

  • AUD/USD targeting stiff resistance at 0.6915/30

  • The Sep 13 high and 50% of 2022 high/low at 0.6915 and 200-day MA at 0.6926

  • Key support is at the 21-day MA at 0.6643

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 30 - 07:05 PM

  • +0.15% after closing up 0.75% - USD continues to slide post Fed's Powell

  • Rate hikes to slow, but likely elevated for longer- risk soared nL1N32Q2D1

  • EZ inflation eased, reducing the pressure on ECB to hike nL1N32Q0PX

  • Euro continues to be led by USD moves and data rather than European events

  • Charts; momentum studies flat line, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages conflict

  • 21 day Bollinger bands contract - neutral setup as consolidation extends

  • 1.0256 21 day moving average and 1.0511 50% 2022 fall are the pivotal levels

  • There are no significant close strikes for December 1st

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Nov 30 - 06:10 PM
  • EUR/USD opens +0.73% after rallying in wake of Powell speech nL1N32Q2QU

  • It completed bullish outside day - as it fell below 1.0300 before speech

  • EUR/USD moves aligned with US Treasury yields that fell hard from highs nL1N32Q2JQ

  • EUR/USD close above 200-day MA at 1.0370 re-ignites trend higher

  • The 5, 10 & 21-day MAs in a bullish alignment

  • Support is at the 21-day MA at 1.0255 and break would suggest top is forming

  • Resistance is at 50% of 2022 high/low at 1.0511 with offers ahead of 1.0500

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Nov 30 - 05:00 PM
  • USD/JPY poised to close 0.45% Thursday as Powell tempers Fed rate outlook

  • Powell says Fed could scale back rate hikes in December nL1N32Q2D1

  • Traders cut bets on Fed peak rate, UST yields pull back; 10-year down 14 bps

  • USD falls from 139.89 day high to 137.67, stabilizes above Monday 137.50 low

  • Focus turns to US PCE, claims & ISM manufacturing Thu, jobs data Friday

  • Below 137.50 opens ratchet to 136.19, Aug 26 low; resistance 138.50, 139.00

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Nov 30 - 01:50 PM
  • AUD/USD opened NY just below the overnight high of 0.6741

  • Overnight gains aided by equity ESv1, commodity HGv1 gains

  • USD/CNH drop below 7.0650 also helped prop up AUD/USD

  • Gains eroded in NY as rates, US$ gained after data nL1N32Q1AU

  • AUD/USD fell below the 10-DMA, hit 0.6677 then neared 0.6710

  • US rates EDH3, US$ sink after Fed Chair Powell comments nS0N30W01U

  • Equities, commodities rallied and USD/CNH fell towards the session low

  • AUD/USD broke the Nov. 29 high, struck 0.6760 & was up +0.92% late

  • Techs lean bullish; RSIs rise, consolidation persists, pair above 10-DMA

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Nov 30 - 01:45 PM
  • EUR/USD slowly lifted in Europe, NY opened near 1.0355, rally extended

  • Equity ESv1, commodity LCOc1 gains drove risk-on and US$ lower

  • Pair struck 1.0400 on EBS after US data nL1N32Q1AU but the rally reversed

  • Rising US rates EDH3 drove broad based US$ buys, USD/CNH neared 7.1015

  • EUR/USD fell below the 200- & 10-DMAs, turned negative & hit 1.0290 on EBS

  • Fed Chair Powell comments nS0N30W01U help drive rates EDH3, US$ down

  • EUR/USD rallied above 1.0370 and was +0.45% late in the session

  • Tech lean bullish; RSIs rising & pair trades above the 10- & 200-DMAs

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 30 - 02:00 PM

Bank of America Global Research discusses its USD outlook for next year and its related EUR/USD and USD/JPY targets over next year time-horizon.

"For now, the forces that have supported the USD this year remain valid, despite the recent correction lower. The US economy is still overheating, with high core inflation and a stretched labor market, despite mixed recent data. The Fed remains the most hawkish central bank in the G10, with the highest policy rate, committed to fight inflation at almost any cost and proving markets wrong that lower equities, fear of recession or financial stability would force a pivot,"BofA notes. 

"In our baseline, the USD remains strong early next year and starts a more sustained downward path after the Fed pauses. We forecast EURUSD at parity and USDJPY at 146 by 1Q23. . However, in our baseline the USD gradually weakens starting in Q2, to 1.10 for EURUSD and to 135 for USD/JPY by end-2023, with our EURUSD forecast above the consensus,"BofA  adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Christopher Romano  —  Nov 30 - 10:55 AM
  • EUR/USD rallied to 1.0400 on EBS after US data but momentum reversed

  • Steady US rate gains EDH3, US10YT=RR drove broad based US$ buying

  • EUR/USD fell below the 200- & 10-DMAs, turned negative on the session

  • Slide stalled short of the Nov. 23 daily low, 1.0301 traded on EBS

  • Meager bounce & daily techs warn that lower levels may be due

  • Daily inverted hammer candle formed and daily RSI is now falling

  • Fed Chair Powell's speech remains a key risk in NY's afternoon

  • For more click on FXBUZ



Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 30 - 10:45 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the latest updates from its positioning model.

"The EUR remains the biggest long in the G10 FX at present despite new selling interest last week, predominantly driven by Crédit Agricole CIB flows. Our FX flow data points at banks and corporates inflows, as well as hedge funds and real money investors outflows. All in all, the EUR is no longer in overbought territory," CACIB notes. 

"The CAD remains the largest short in the G10 FX after fresh selling last week, predominantly driven by algo trading flows based on FX technicals signals. Our FX flow data points at banks and hedge funds inflows, as well as corporates and real money investors outflows," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Nov 30 - 10:05 AM

EUR/USD rallied on Wednesday above the 10- and 200-day moving averages, indicating they may look past comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the session as they fixate on signs of U.S. economic weakness.

Though Fed rhetoric has generally been hawkish, markets have taken a dovish view of signs that policymakers are willing to slow the extraordinary pace of rate hikes, pulling down the projected terminal Fed rate EDH3 from early-November highs.

Any signs that Powell is tempering his hawkish stance would weaken rates, dragging the dollar down and pushing EUR/USD higher.

There's also little room for Powell to adopt a more aggressive view in light of weakening data nL1N32P1CAnL1N32P1XFnL1N32P204 and highly inverted 3-month/10-year and 2-year/10-year spreads, which imply recession is likely.

A dovish Powell surprise could allow EUR/USD to rally above 1.0500 and make a run for the 1.0800 area.

Risks from November ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs and the employment data loom, and downside surprises could lead markets to expect a less aggressive Fed.

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 30 - 09:30 AM

ING Research discusses its reaction to today's EZ HICP/CPI print.

"We were due some good news. The eurozone inflation rate ticked down after a few nasty upside surprises. Energy inflation has been the most important driver of the decline going from 41.5 to 34.9%. Food inflation continues to trend up, while core inflation was stable at 5%. This is still far too high, but tentative signs that we’re at or close to a peak are increasing," ING notes. 

"For the ECB though, tentative signs of inflation peaking are mounting, evidence of a wage-price spiral continues to remain absent and the environment is turning recessionary. In our view, that is likely to sway the ECB from 75 basis point hikes to a smaller hike of 50 basis points in December," ING adds. 

Source:
HSBC Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 30 - 08:30 AM

MUFG Research discusses CAD outlook and maintains a structural bearish bias over the medium-term.

"Our current FX forecasts indicate our view of likely CAD underperformance over the forecast horizon.  Our view is based on the risks that the consequence of this relatively aggressive action by the BoC would be weak data emerging in Canada ahead of most other G10 countries. Close links to the US reinforce that risk given the Fed action and the prospect of slower US growth as well," MUFG notes, 

"There were other factors weighing on CAD yesterday. The sale by HSBC of its Canada unit to RBC was announced and fuelled speculation of outflows from Canada with HSBC reportedly using the proceeds for a one-time dividend or a share buyback program...CAD underperformance yesterday was stark. A one-off HSBC flow may have played a role in this but nonetheless the fundamental backdrop is worsening and the CAD outperformance this year relative to non-USD G10 is likely to reverse further from here," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Nov 30 - 07:15 AM
  • AUD/USD rallied 0.66705-0.6740 overnight, NY opens near that high

  • Risk-on theme drives investors into riskier assets and out of US$

  • Equities ESv1, commodities HGv1 gain & USD/CNH fell below 7.0725

  • AUD/USD techs lean bullish; consolidation ongoing, RSIs rising

  • US Q2 GDP, PCE and Oct. JOLTS, pending homes index are data risks in NY

  • Speech from Fed's Powell is a major event risk during NY hours

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Nov 30 - 05:55 AM
  • USD/JPY has risen from 138.34 to 139.03 Wednesday, according EBS data

  • Dollar on shaky ground as Fed's Powell set to speak nL1N32Q0MK

  • USD/JPY's daily chart points to a market poised to drop nL1N32Q0H2

  • USD/JPY, EUR/JPY 30-day log correlation above +0.50 = positive relationship

  • Japan to consider tapping FX account to boost defence spending - Kyodo

  • Those are funds set aside for foreign exchange intervention nL1N32P2FU

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Nov 30 - 05:10 AM

Sterling might have turned a corner having lost nearly 28% in value to the dollar between May 2021 and September 2022.
GBP/USD is set for back-to-back monthly gains as November ends.

The monthly chart might be giving clues on longer-term direction having recorded a significant reversal signal in September.
The shorter-term charts continue to show volatility as the fundamental backdrop triggers big swings in the spot price.
However, September's hammer candle, which can warn of a trend reversal, and the subsequent bullish confirmation in October could bode well for sterling through December.

If sterling ends November above 1.1495, the month's opening level, the bull reversal could then target a major 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2280, taken from the 1.4233 to 1.0327 May 2021 to September 2022 drop.

Sterling could extend its recovery into early 2023 and an Ichimoku cloud twist for March, with 1.2895-1.3036 parameters, might pull the market higher.
Cloud twists can appear to attract price action.

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Nov 30 - 04:40 AM
  • Big USD/CAD rally Tuesday from 1.3409 to 1.3645 - boosted option demand

  • 1-week already buoyed in to Fri's U.S. NFP - gained another 1.5 to 10.0

  • Benchmark 1-month implied vol up 0.5 to 9.3 before peaking

  • Option dealers also report strong end-user demand for topside strikes

  • Risk reversals retain a firm 0.9 vol premium for CAD puts/USD calls (upside)

  • Overnight expiry now gets Powell - biggest vol gains vs peers 13.5 from 11.0

  • Related comment nL1N32Q0IU



For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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