The pound could be hit hard if the BoE fails to raise interest rates this week.
The chances of a 25bp BoE hike Thursday are 86 per cent, according to the BOEWATCH measure on Eikon -- so it would be a negative surprise for sterling if the Bank Rate is held at 0.5 percent.
The GBP-negative reaction to any unchanged shock would also be amplified by the knowledge that hawk Ian McCafferty will have been replaced on the MPC by perceived dove Jonathan Haskel before the next monetary policy announcement on Sept.
This personnel change would lessen the probability of a BoE rate rise being delivered in November if the BoE does not give the market the "dovish hike" expected this week.
Only one out of 14 economists polled by Reuters expect a majority of MPC members to vote for unchanged rates this week: seven of those 14 forecast a 7-2 vote for a hike, with four tipping 6-3 and two predicting 8-1.
BoE poll: Click here