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Oct 27 - 02:55 PM

ING: Continued Bearish Stance on EUR/USD Post-ECB's Non-Event Meeting

By eFXdata  —  Oct 27 - 01:30 PM


ING maintains a bearish outlook on EUR/USD following an uneventful European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. The ECB's reluctance to alter its guidance or discuss adjustments to monetary policy tools resulted in minimal market impact, leaving the Euro without substantial support from the central bank. With depressed rate expectations due to a gloomy growth forecast and persistent negative rate/growth differentials, the scenario supports a short-term bearish sentiment for the EUR/USD pair.

Key Points:

  1. ECB's Non-Event Meeting:

    • The recent ECB meeting, characterized by a lack of new guidance and discussions on monetary policy adjustments, had little to no impact on markets. This outcome aligns with what may have been the ECB's intention for a "quiet" meeting, keeping bond markets slightly stronger and the EUR largely unchanged.
  2. Limited Support for the Euro:

    • The Euro is unlikely to gain significant support from a hawkish turn by the ECB, a scenario currently off the table. Market participants have valid reasons to maintain low rate expectations, primarily driven by the worsening growth outlook in the Eurozone.
  3. Minor EUR/USD Rebound:

    • The slight recovery in EUR/USD is attributed to improved global risk sentiment following positive earnings reports from the US tech sector, rather than any policy-driven momentum from the ECB or Eurozone economic indicators.
  4. Dollar's Muted Response to US Data:

    • Interestingly, the dollar has shown a subdued reaction to robust US economic releases, and the Eurozone's data seems to have a more pronounced effect on the EUR/USD pair. This dynamic might continue, especially considering the ECB's dovish stance, leaving the Euro vulnerable.
  5. Short-Term Bearish Bias on EUR/USD:

    • Given the unlikelihood of a substantial near-term turnaround in Eurozone economic data, combined with unfavorable rate and growth differentials, ING's stance leans towards a bearish bias for EUR/USD in the short term. The implication is a more significant potential for the currency pair's downward movement, barring any unexpected positive shift in the Eurozone's economic conditions or ECB policy adjustments.

Conclusion: The ECB's latest meeting underscores a period of wait-and-see, offering no immediate respite for the Euro from central bank policy. ING's analysis suggests that without a catalyst from the ECB or a significant upswing in Eurozone economic performance, the Euro remains on shaky ground. This outlook, coupled with the dollar's current trajectory and global market sentiments, justifies a cautious approach towards the EUR/USD pair, with expectations leaning towards potential depreciation. Investors and market participants will likely keep a close eye on upcoming economic releases and global market trends that could influence this currency pair's direction.

ING Research/Market Commentary


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