Credit Suisse discusses its EUR/USD and USD/JPY near-term outlook.
"We have now reached (or are very close to reaching) some of the key FX targets we outlined for Q2, namely 1.08 in EURUSD and 130 in USDJPY. As things stand, we still are not looking to change these targets just yet.
In the case of JPY, BOJ Governor Kuroda made a slight change to his previous FX rhetoric this week by stating that the recent rapid drop in JPY also has some negative effects. The subtle shift is likely to further fuel market speculation around BOJ policy: a shift in guidance at the 27-28 April BOJ meeting will be seen as a possibility, especially if CPI data out on 21 Apr were to surprise strong," CS notes.
"Against the backdrop of high implied vols and risk reversal skews, we are reluctant to extend our USDJPY target past 130. In EUR, the French election runoff vote beckons on 24 Apr: while a Le Pen win would most likely push EURUSD through the 1.0750 low end of our target range, a Macron win would not make us rush to change our bearish EUR view," CS adds.