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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Peter Stoneham  —  May 27 - 05:45 AM
  • USD/JPY remains offered and slips from Thursday 127.58 EBS high

  • Japanese importer bids likely to slow the fall below 126.50

  • Touted Japanese offers look to have the measure of any up-ticks

  • Huge option expiries noted: 126.98-05 (1.46BLN) and 127.70-75 (1.44BLN)

  • UST yields trying to base: 10s at the 50-day moving average, 2.7305%

  • Dollar set for worst week in four-months as Fed hike spec fever cools

  • Some fears Fed might pause its tightening cycle in the second half of 2022

    For more click on FXBUZ







USD/JPY daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 27 - 05:15 AM
  • AUD/USD rises to 0.7149 (new three-week high) after iron ore closes up 4.4%

  • See: nL2N2XJ08X. Iron ore is Australia's biggest export earner

  • Risk-sensitive AUD also buoyed by equity gains nL3N2XJ152nL5N2XJ14H

  • Solid retail sales data is another source of support for AUD nL2N2XJ01V

  • AUD/USD might extend north if U.S. core PCE comes in sub-4.9% YY at 1230 GMT

  • See: nL2N2XI0ED. 0.7200 is among bull targets (0.7267 was May 5 high)

AUDUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  May 27 - 04:55 AM
  • Volatility continues to cloud near-term direction

  • We still lean bearish and look for a run back to the 200DMA, 0.8445

  • Converged 10, 21 and 30DMAs provide initial support at 0.8491-94

  • Tues/Wed 0.8487-88 lows just behind and then daily Kinsen at 0.8468

  • Neutral RSI readings and negative 14-day momentum

  • We look for stronger signals before taking a position

    For more click on FXBUZ
















EUR/GBP Trader:

EUR/GBP daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 27 - 03:05 AM
  • Cable holds above 1.2600 (ex-resistance level) after retreating from 1.2666

  • 1.2666 = one-month high in Asia nL2N2XJ04T. 1.2600 was Monday's high

  • Support points below 1.2600 include 1.2550 (1.2551 was Thursday's low)

  • 1.2553 was low after 25% UK windfall tax/support package news nL5N2XI0ZO

  • Sunak: Support package will have minimal impact on inflation nL5N2XJ0TO

  • Fed's preferred inflation gauge due at 1230 GMT; 4.9% YY f/c nL2N2XI0ED

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  May 27 - 02:55 AM
  • Early high at 1.0765, EBS pricing, just shy of a 50% Fibo at 1.0767

  • Long performing but the retrace off the 1.1185-1.0349 drop needs to go

  • Daily chart still has the makings of a bullish continuation pattern

  • If the pattern plays out the EUR could head back to 1.0936 Apr 21 high

  • 14-day positive momentum is holding and RSI is trying to lift

  • Weekly chart set for large back to back bull candles

    For more click on FXBUZ


EUR/USD Trader

EUR/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  May 27 - 02:20 AM
  • May 27 EUR/USD 1.0706-65 EBS range, highest since Apr 25

  • Peak 20-Day Bollinger bands is 1.0775, 55-DMA 1.0774

  • The target for a minimum tech correction of 2022 drop is 1.0786

  • With traders already long a swift break into overbought territory unlikely

  • Profit taking may limit upside progress ahead weekend


EUR/USD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 27 - 12:05 AM

  • +0.4% with USD weaker across the board, as aggressive Fed hike fears ease

  • Trades towards top of a 1.2607-1.2666 range, breaking May 1.2637 range top

  • Cable was busy on D3, but heavy EUR/GBP flow -0.1% a in 0.8496-0.8521 range

  • U.S. trade deal stalled, so UK deals with states, first Indiana nL5N2XI4OH

  • UK is working with 20 U.S. states to secure individual trade deals

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages head higher

  • 21 day Bollinger bands expand - signals provide a solid positive setup

  • Break of 1.2637 May range high targets 1.2727, 50% of the 2022 fall

    For more click on FXBUZ


gbp 2 May 27 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 26 - 10:10 PM

  • +0.45%, bid after retail sales came in as expected at +0.9% nAZN05GLEK

  • Demand led by sales of holidays, and a return to cafes and restaurants

  • Data suggests that Australia is moving back to living pre COVID normal

  • Fresh 0.7135 trend high - poised below 0.7146, 38.2% of the 2022 fall

  • Charts; neutral momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs base or climb

  • 21 day Bollinger bands flat line - net a modest positive setup

  • Sustained 0.7150 break would target 0.7217 upper 21 day Bolli band

  • Asian 0.7090 low today is initial support

For more click on FXBUZ


aud 2 May 27 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 26 - 08:50 PM

  • +0.1% after closing up 0.2% with risk 'on' USD softer and Wall Street higher

  • Optimism fades that China to bounce quickly from COVID lockdown nL3N2XI0T8

  • Conflicting offshore U.S.-China outlooks leave AUD in a holding pattern

  • Australian final retail sales due at 11.30am in Sydney RTRS poll +0.9%

  • Charts; neutral momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs base or climb

  • 21 day Bollinger bands flat line - net a modest positive setup

  • Close above 0.7146, 38.2% of the 2022 fall would be a bullish signal

  • NY 0.7072 low and Thursday's 0.7059 Asian low initial supports

For more click on FXBUZ


aud May 27 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 26 - 08:05 PM

  • +0.05% after closing up 0.2% amid broad based USD weakness

  • UK imposes 25% energy windfall tax to help households nL5N2XI0ZO

  • Welcome relief for the low paid, and should support consumer demand

  • Barclays and Morgan Stanley models expect strong USD demand into month end

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages head higher

  • 21 day Bollinger bands expand - signals provide a solid positive setup

  • 1.2639 May range high likely resilient resistance - close above bullish

  • 1.2553 NY low then 1.2551 early London base are initial support

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp May 27 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 26 - 07:35 PM

  • Steady early after closing +0.5% with much of Europe closed for Ascension

  • Euro led broad USD weakness as softer U.S. data cooled growth expectations

  • Barclays and Morgan Stanley models expect strong USD demand into month end

  • Charts; mixed momentum studies, 5, 10 and 21 day moving averages head higher

  • 21 day Bollinger bands expand - net positive setup below pivotal resistance

  • Targets a test of 1.0786, 38.2% 2022 fall - close above would be bullish

  • NY 1.0689 low then early London 1.0663 base are initial supports

  • 1.0700 783 MLM and 1.0750/65 1.913 BLN are Friday's close strikes

    For more click on FXBUZ


EUR May 27 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  May 26 - 05:45 PM
  • AUD/USD fails to rally despite strong recovery in risk sentiment; S&P +1.99%

  • Rally attempts stifled by concerns on China economic slowing; CNH down 0.8%

  • China Premier Li Keqiang's sombre message on economy sours mood nL2N2XH0TT

  • Signs of a slowing U.S. economy, falling inflation expectations limit drop

  • Scaled back bets on aggressive Fed interest rate hikes underpin

  • Australia retail sales, U.S. core PCE & Michigan consumer sentiment Fri eyed

  • Support 0.7055-60, 0.7035-40, resistance 0.7115-25, 0.7155-60

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Reuters poll: Australian house market prices: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 26 - 03:30 PM

Barclays Research maintains a bullish bias on CHF over the medium-term.

"We expect CHF to continue to trade at the higher end of its historical range as market sentiment remains shaky, and the SNB is less likely to intervene given sticky global inflation," Barclays notes. 

"The hawkish rhetoric by the SNB last also helps to close the rates gap between CHF and the rest of the G10. President Jordan flagged the risk of second-round effects, and pledged to maintain price stability and act if inflation risks materialize," Barclays adds.

Source:
Barclays Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  May 26 - 03:10 PM

The dollar index fell on Thursday as unexpectedly weak U.S. pending home sales reminded investors of the economic pain the Fed expects to accompany its inflation-fighting efforts, but resilient stocks and Treasury yields limited the damage to the U.S. currency.

EUR/USD gained 0.3%, USD/JPY was flat and sterling advanced 0.2% as risk-on markets weighed on the safe-haven dollar and yen, aided by the notion that the height of Fed rate-hike pricing has passed and hopes that tight labor supplies will cushion the impact of soaring inflation and tighter financial conditions.

However, a sharp retreat in housing nL2N2XI155 and signs that surging costs are damping the post-pandemic rebound nL2N2XI0WF come as massive savings stockpiles -- fueled by COVID stimulus -- and real wages fall, heightening fears of recession by 2023.

EUR/USD gained 0.3%, not far from the day's 1.0729 EBS high, which was just shy of Wednesday and Tuesday's 1.07375/48 peaks nL2N2XI19B.
The rebound from 1.0663 lows was aided by slightly higher 2-year bund-Treasury yield spreads and risk-on flows.

If Friday's PCE and next week's U.S. jobs data fail to revive the uptrend in Fed rate hike pricing beyond the 50bp hikes seen in June and July, the rebound in EUR/USD and correction in the dollar index nL2N2XI1CE should persist.

Sterling was up 0.2%, not getting much traction off the UK tax and spending plans meant to mitigate the damage from soaring energy prices nL5N2XI0ZO.
Thursday's 1.2620 recovery high cleared the 30-day moving average, but was blocked by the daily kijun.

Further gains will need BoE-Fed rate hike expectations to move more in the pound's favor after the recent pullback in peak U.S. terminal rate expectations lifted 2-year gilt-Treasury yield spreads by 36bp nL2N2XI15H.

USD/JPY recovered to roughly unchanged from earlier 126.55 intraday lows, those lows coming after the mere mention of an eventual, smooth exit from loose money by BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda gave the yen a brief boost nL2N2XI0B0.

But a rebound in Treasury yields and risk-on flows dimmed demand for the haven yen and got prices back up toward the 127.58 highs on EBS.
The rate and risk-sensitive pair now faces PCE and payrolls event risks that look more important after the recent run of weaker-than-forecast U.S. data nL2N2XI1GQ.

Surging oil prices weighed on USD/NOK, USD/CAD and USD/MXN, but aussie was flat and USD/CNH up 0.79% as COVID lockdown fears lingered despite efforts to reopen cities and to support the sagging economy nL2N2XF0OI.

Bitcoin and ether spiked lower, with ether getting closer to May's breakdown lows and recovering less than bitcoin.

Along with the core PCE update Friday, personal income and spending and Michigan consumer sentiment are also on tap.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  May 26 - 02:55 PM

  • USD/JPY about flat and consolidating Personals, Mich updates nL2N2XI1GQ

  • Prices holding above May's 126.37 EBS low by weekly tenkan/50% Fibo @126.32

  • Small T-bond yield rise, higher stocks lift risk and rates-sensitive USD/JPY

  • Japanese have been big buyers of foreign bonds recently, Tsys most likely

  • But specs are heavily long and the primary uptrend has lost momentum

  • Will need fresh Fed-led yield support after PCE and NFP to resume the rise

  • BOJ's Kuroda merely mentioning eventual easing exit helped yen early

  • But there is zero market indication of tightening on the horizon

    For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  May 26 - 01:45 PM
  • AUD/USD rallied 0.7059-0.7103 in Europe, NY opened near 0.7085

  • USD/CNH buys, commodity sales in early NY sink AUD/USD towards 0.7070

  • US$ buying abates, AUD/JPY rallied toward 90.30, AUD/USD neared 0.7100

  • Pair slides below 0.7090 as US yields US2YT=RR bounce off their lows

  • Techs lean bullish; 10-DMa crosses above 21-DMA, consolidation intact

  • Investors await US core PCE which is the Fed's preferred price indicator

  • For more click on FXBUZ

audusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 26 - 01:30 PM

Credit Suisse discusses USD/JPY outlook and adopts a neutral bias over the near-term.

"It now looks a stretch for USDJPY to quickly move towards 135.00, given its failure to move much beyond 131.00 even when news flow was at its most encouraging," CS notes. 

"In this context, we prefer to take a neutral stance at this point, as the risk-reward profile for being long is no longer as attractive as we saw before. We also suspect EURJPY strength should fade ahead of the 138.00 level," CS adds. 

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  May 26 - 12:05 PM
  • EUR/USD dips are becoming shallow, 1.0663 hit on EBS before bounce ensued

  • Pair turned positive and rally extended toward the May 25 daily high

  • EUR/USD longs are very encouraged as tech signals indicate rally is due

  • 10-DMA crossed above 21-DMA, consolidation of gain off May 13 low persists

  • Daily & monthly RSIs rising, large monthly bull hammer candle is in place

  • US Apr core PCE risk looms for Friday, if a key price indicator for the Fed

  • If rally resumes after the data 1.0755/75 resistance zone likely breaks

  • April 14 low, 50% Fib 1.1185-1.0349, 55-DMA all sit in that zone

  • Break of that resistance likely targets 1.0850/65, 1.0950/1.1000 areas

  • For more click on FXBUZ

eurusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 26 - 11:00 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses the USD outlook and maintains a bullish bias through the summer.

"The correlation of the USD with risk sentiment has returned. For most of the year, the USD strengthened because of: the Fed hawkish pivot and more aggressive repricing in rates, in response to the highest core inflation in G10 and an extremely tight labor market; and an improvement of the US terms of trade compared with a substantial deterioration in the case of Japan and the Eurozone, on the back on the sharp increase in energy prices. As a result, the USD was appreciating with respect to all other G10 currencies, before May," BofA notes. 

"However, so far this month, risk sentiment has taken over as the main USD driver, with risk-off leading to both lower yields and a stronger USD, with the exception against JPY and CHF, the other safe-haven G10 currencies. As the market starts pricing a stagflation scenario, the outlook for risk assets remains challenging, which is likely to keep supporting the USD," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Paul Spirgel  —  May 26 - 10:30 AM

GBP/USD weakened from session highs on Thursday after the British finance minister said high inflation was causing acute distress, leaving the pound unlikely to benefit until investors expect BoE tightening to become more aggressive or the Fed less so.

Though finance minister Rishi Sunak said he expected the BoE to take decisive action to tame prices, this did little to change near-term UK-U.S.
rate differentials, which still favor the dollar.

Eikon data Fedwatch indicate the Fed is expected to lift rates 177bps by year-end -- with 50bp moves penciled in for June and July -- and BoE only 118bp, despite a G7-leading 9% inflation rate.

This differential will remain sterling negative unless recent disappointing U.S. data continues to put downward pressure on terminal Fed rate expectation.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic recently broached the subject of a rate-hike pause in September, which may become a more likely option following a string of underperforming U.S. data, such as Thursday's pending home sales [nW1N2XI006].

A dovish Fed detour would likely lift the pound back toward March 2022 levels near 1.34.

For more click on FXBUZ


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 26 - 10:00 AM
Societe Generale Research discusses likes buying AUD, NZD, and CAD strategically around current dips. 
 
"With current equity/G6FX correlations close to historic highs, the question of what happens to equities is important, and that depends on what kind of economic slowdown the Fed engineers. If the US economy slows slowly as the Fed raises rates, equity markets will be fine, and the dollar may already have peaked. But if there’s a hard landing, the dollar is unlikely to stop rising even when the Fed has finished raising rates – because equity markets will still be falling, and volatility will be high," SocGen notes. 
 
"AUD, CAD and NZD will have a bumpy ride but these are levels to buy dips, or carefully build strategic longs. But buying the euro (or sterling) is betting not only that the US engineers a soft landing, but that escalation of the conflict in Ukraine is unlikely," SocGen adds. 
Source:
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 26 - 09:00 AM

MUFG Research discusses its reaction to yesterday's FOMC minutes from the May policy meeting. 

"The minutes revealed that many Fed policymakers believed that “expediting the removal of policy accommodation” through two more 50bps hikes in both June and July would “leave it well positioned later this year to assess the effects of policy firming and the extent to which economic developments warranted policy adjustments”. It signals that the Fed could be open to a pause at the September meeting as suggested by Atlanta Fed President Bostic. However, it would depend heavily on the performance of the US economy and financial conditions," MUFG notes. 

"For the Fed to slow/pause rate hikes heading into the autumn it will likely require some combination of much weaker economic growth, further weakness in equity markets and/or a faster cooling of inflation pressures. It suggests that market participants could be getting a little ahead of themselves in beginning to anticipate a dovish policy pivot from the Fed at the current juncture. we are not yet convinced that the recent pullback for the US dollar is the start of more sustained moved lower”," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  May 26 - 06:40 AM

  • Mild Wednesday correction into fresh losses early Thursday

  • The daily chart gives a bear target at 125.30, Ichimoku cloud top

  • 14-day momentum and daily RSI still confirming bear bias

  • We offer by 128.00 but may drop the trigger to 126.55 on a weak close

  • Also entertaining selling a break below 126.37

  • Weeklies set for third consecutive bear close

    For more click on FXBUZ









USD/JPY daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  May 26 - 05:50 AM
  • EUR/USD is trapped between divergent pulls ECB/Fed policy

  • ECB meets June 9 and is expected to make big changes

  • Fed meets Jun 16 and is expected to hike 50bps

  • Fed will start to reduce balance sheet from June 1

  • Until there's news from ECB or Fed EUR/USD likely confined tight ranges

  • Two key factors; trend firmly down, traders long

  • After this pause there's a high probability downtrend resumes

  • Risk aversion is core to recent developments nL2N2XI0CY

EURUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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