The Australian dollar's support base at 0.6340-0.6362 which has held for more than a year is at risk of giving way after the Reserve Bank of Australia softened its hawkish stance on Tuesday, opening the door to a rate cut in February.
The RBA held rates at 4.35%, but its statement omitted the line that it was "not ruling anything in or out" and also did not say policy needs to remain restrictive - both significant developments.
While Governor Michele Bullock sounded cautious on current core inflation levels, she was non-committal on the prospects of a cut in February, emphasising that the RBA would remain data-dependant.
With two labour market and retail sales reports, one quarterly CPI and two monthly CPI releases scheduled between now and its Feb 17-18 meeting, the RBA will be well placed to make an informed choice.
Meanwhile, the case for an early rate cut continues to build with the economy weakening markedly in the third quarter and wages growth slowing. On Tuesday, a widely followed survey showedbusiness conditions slid to the lowest since the pandemic in November.
Market pricing of a 25 basis-point rate cut in February has risen to 61% from about 54% before the RBA meeting, with the first cut now fully priced for April and two by May 0#AUDIRPR.
AUD/USD dropped 0.9% after the RBA meeting, also dampened by weak Chinese trade data, though Beijing's stimulus pledges may cushion its decline.
A break of the 0.6340-6362 support band would open the way to the 2023 low at 0.6271.
Resistance is at 0.6470 and 0.6500.
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